Penn State @ Ohio State NCAAF 11/01/2025
Let’s set the stage. Noon ET in the Horseshoe, Week 11, and we’ve got a rivalry that usually brings out the best in both programs. Ohio State is cruising at 7-0, ranked second in the table for this competition dataset, and riding a machine-like defense that’s giving up about 5.9 points per game. Penn State arrives at 3-4, 1-4 in conference, in the middle of organizational turbulence after James Franklin was let go and longtime assistant Terry Smith stepped in on an interim basis. This isn’t just another Saturday. It’s the final audition before the first College Football Playoff rankings drop, the wind could be real in Columbus, and GameDay’s in the house—again—for a matchup that’s been tight over the years, often trending lower-scoring.
From a betting angle, Ohio State has paid the bills: 10-0 in its last 10 straight-up, a scorching 10-0-1 against the spread across its last 11 with one push, and a 6-0-1 ATS mark this season. Penn State, meanwhile, is 1-6 ATS and mired in four straight losses by a razor-thin average margin of 3.5 points. The line is big—Ohio State -20.5—and the total is set at 43.5, which dovetails with recent history: eight of the last 10 meetings have gone under. The moneyline is heavy on the Buckeyes, while Penn State is a long-shot price. Buckle up; this one has layers.
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Our betting predictions for the match Penn State @ Ohio State
Main Tip: Spread – Ohio State -20.5
Our primary betting prediction — Spread: Ohio State -20.5 at -115 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Ohio State’s defense is playing suffocating, averaging roughly 5.9 points allowed per game, and the offense has been more efficient at home (about 40.8 points per game). Penn State’s offense has been streaky and is handing the keys to a young quarterback again behind a line that’s been in flux. The Buckeyes’ recent ATS heater is tough to fade, especially in Columbus. The path of least resistance is laying the number. Our betting prediction: Ohio State -20.5 at -115 with Fanatics.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Ohio State to Win
Our secondary prediction — Moneyline: Ohio State to win at DraftKings Sportsbook. There’s no mystery about the outright. Ohio State’s eight-game run over Penn State since 2017, a zero on the board last week at Wisconsin, and the current form edge on both sides of the ball paint a clear moneyline picture. If you’re building parlays or just want a safer anchor, Buckeyes at DraftKings Sportsbook is the logical play. If you’re hunting a moonshot, Penn State is +900, but our prediction says the Buckeyes handle business.
Tip 3: Game Totals – Over 43.5
Our final betting tip — Total: Over 43.5 at -110 with DraftKings Sportsbook. Yes, the rivalry has leaned under, and the Buckeyes’ defense is nails. But with Ohio State averaging around 36.4 points per game (and even higher at home) and Penn State around 34.0 per game overall, there’s enough efficiency to push this past the number if the Nittany Lions contribute at all. Add in explosive Buckeye pass-game weapons and a few short fields off turnovers, and 44+ is within reach. Our betting tip: Over 43.5 at -110.
Team news
- – Penn State:
- QB Drew Allar isn’t listed after last week’s left knee scare, but Ethan Grunkemeyer is still the expected starter, making his second career start.
- Offensive line help arrives with Zuriah Fisher and Vega Ioane trending available after missing the Iowa loss.
- DE Dani Dennis-Sutton is a game-time decision. Freshman RB Quinton Martin Jr. remains out.
- QB depth is thin; Jaxon Smolik’s status is unclear, and freshman Bekkem Kritza is available behind Grunkemeyer.
- – Ohio State:
- LT Zen Michalski won’t go, and LT Josh Simmons, plus RB Timothy Caffe,y are out for the season.
- The secondary gets a boost with safety Lathan Ransom returning after missing Nebraska.
Ohio State performance check
Ryan Day’s group is doing what top-tier teams do in late October—tighten the screws. The Buckeyes average about 36.4 points per game and allow around 5.9, with even better splits at home: roughly 40.8 scored and 4.8 allowed in the Shoe. The Will Howard-led passing attack is humming, and while his raw touchdown total is a season-long figure, it translates to just under 2.5 passing touchdowns per game through seven outings. He’s near the top nationally in efficiency and completion rate, and that’s backed by explosive plays: just last week, he delivered three passing scores with 221 yards, while Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate ripped off chunk gains, including a 60-yard strike to Smith and a 40-yard score to Tate.
Defensively, Jim Knowles’ unit is playing fast and disciplined, limiting explosives and forcing offenses into third-and-long. The shutout at Wisconsin told the story: physical at the line, rallying to the ball, and crisp tackling in space. Even with tackle injuries on offense, the depth and play design have masked losses up front. The Buckeyes are also covering numbers, not just winning—6-0-1 ATS this season—so the market hasn’t quite caught up to their week-to-week dominance.
How is the current performance of Penn State
Terry Smith steps into a tough spot. Penn State sits at 3-4 with four straight losses, but the margins have been frustratingly thin—about 3.5 points per loss across the last four. On offense, the Nittany Lions average roughly 34.0 points per game, though on the road that dips to about 30.5, and they allow about 33.5 on the road. It’s been a rollercoaster. Kaytron Allen remains the identity piece: he posted 145 yards with two touchdowns against Iowa last week and is averaging one rushing score per game on the season, having found the end zone every week.
The passing game is the wildcard. Grunkemeyer is coming off a tough Iowa outing, averaging just over 3 yards per attempt with a couple of interceptions. Still, with Allar available if needed and the line getting healthier, the staff is likely to emphasize the run and high-percentage throws to tight ends like Tyler Warren—remember, in last year’s meeting, Warren picked up yards as both a receiver and runner. Defensively, Penn State bends but competes, and the front’s health—especially Dennis-Sutton’s availability—could decide whether they disrupt Will Howard or spend the afternoon chasing.
Team Statistics
- – Ohio State scoring: ~36.4 per game; allowed: ~5.9 per game
- – Ohio State at home: ~40.8 scored; ~4.8 allowed
- – Penn State scoring: ~34.0 per game; allowed: ~19.4 per game
- – Penn State on the road: ~30.5 scored; ~33.5 allowed
- – Ohio State form: 7-0 overall; 4-0 at home
- – Penn State form: 3-4 overall; 0-2 away
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- – Ohio State QB Will Howard: elite efficiency rating, near the top nationally; averaging just under 2.5 passing touchdowns per game; coming off a 221-yard, three-touchdown outing.
- – WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate add vertical juice—both hit explosive plays vs. Nebraska.
- – Penn State RB Kaytron Allen: one rushing score per game on average; fresh off a career-high day at Iowa.
- – Penn State OL reinforcements (Fisher, Ioane) help, but edge pressure from Ohio State is a problem if Dennis-Sutton can’t go full speed for PSU’s defense.
- – Betting momentum: Ohio State is 10-0-1 ATS in its last 11 (one push), 10-0 straight-up in the last 10; Penn State is 1-6 ATS this season.
- – Totals trend: Under in four of Ohio State’s last five; eight of the last 10 meetings have gone under.
- – Weather: Typical late October in Columbus—50s to low 60s at kickoff with potential wind. Crosswinds favor the better ground game and special teams discipline.
- – Spotlight: FOX’s Big Noon and GameDay elevate the stage. Historically, Ohio State has handled the moment at home against Penn State.
Last direct match: Ohio State vs Penn State
The Buckeyes took last season’s meeting 20-13 on the road. That game followed the familiar script: controlled tempo, stout Ohio State defense, and limited explosive plays from Penn State. It also extended Ohio State’s current eight-game run in the rivalry. The home field has mattered, too—Ohio State has won its last six in Columbus in this matchup.
Performance last 5 matches
- – Ohio State: 5 wins, 0 losses. The defense’s average performance level is elite, and the offense has found balance with efficiency through the air and a timely ground game.
- – Penn State: 1 win, 4 losses. The margins are thin in the recent skid—about 3.5 points per loss across the last four—but the inconsistency at quarterback and on the road has kept them behind the number.
Last match results of Ohio State and Penn State
- – Ohio State: 34-0 win at Wisconsin. Howard tossed three touchdowns, the defense squeezed everything, and the Buckeyes controlled the game script from kickoff.
- – Penn State: 24-25 loss at Iowa. Kaytron Allen starred, but turnovers and red-zone execution issues left points on the field.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re leaning into the Buckeyes’ two-way consistency, the home-field edge, and Penn State’s transition phase under an interim staff. First, the spread: Ohio State -20.5 at -110 is our favorite angle, given a defense allowing fewer than a touchdown per game and an offense that tends to spike at home. Second, the moneyline: Ohio State at DraftKings Sportsbook is the steady pick for parlays and conservative bettors. Third, the total: Over 43.5 at -110 is a contrarian nudge against the rivalry’s under trends, banking on the Buckeyes to shoulder most of the scoring and Penn State to chip in just enough. That’s the path we see, and why we’re riding Buckeyes spread, Buckeyes outright, and an over that edges past the number.
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