Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Odds US Open 2025
The lights are bright, the stakes are huge, and we’ve got a semi that could shake up the US Open. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner hasn’t dropped a set all tournament and looks like a man on a mission. Across the net, World No. 27 Felix Auger-Aliassime has been the surprise of the fortnight, knocking out big names and riding serious momentum.
But can FAA’s hot streak crack Sinner’s wall? We’re breaking it all down — the stats, the trends, and where the smart money should go heading into this showdown.
Recent Form – Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime
Jannik Sinner:
Sinner’s been untouchable in New York. The defending champion stormed into the semis with a 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 demolition of fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti, extending his hard-court winning streak to 26 matches. He hasn’t dropped a set all tournament.
More importantly, Sinner looks comfortable on Ashe. His serve is clicking, his baseline rhythm is surgical, and he’s playing with the swagger of someone who knows he belongs at the very top. This is his fifth straight Grand Slam semifinal — elite consistency from the 24-year-old.
Felix Auger-Aliassime:
And then there’s FAA — the wildcard nobody saw coming. The Canadian is playing his best tennis in years, grinding past Alex de Minaur in a thriller (4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 7-6) to reach his first Slam semifinal since 2021.
What makes Felix dangerous right now? He’s hot. He’s beaten Zverev, Rublev, and de Minaur back-to-back-to-back — all Top-15 guys. His serve is booming, his forehand has bite, and his confidence is peaking at just the right time.
Head-to-Head – Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime
| Matches Played | Sinner Wins | FAA Wins |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | 2 |
- FAA actually leads the rivalry 2–1, but… context matters.
- Their most recent meeting? Sinner obliterated FAA in Cincinnati, 6-0, 6-2.
- Sinner’s now the steadier player mentally and tactically, especially under pressure..
Bottom line: FAA’s early edge in the rivalry doesn’t mean much — this is a different Sinner.
Betting Odds & Predictions
Match Winner Odds (via BetMGM)
- Sinner → Heavy favorite
- Auger-Aliassime → Underdog with value
Prediction: Sinner in four sets.
Here’s the logic: FAA’s serving too well to get swept, but Sinner’s form, defense, and baseline consistency give him the clear edge.
Other Betting Angles to Watch (@ BetMGM)
1. Total Games Over/Under
- Over 32.5 games – (+100)
- Under 32.5 games – (-135) ✅ Our Pick
Expect a competitive match, but Sinner’s clean hitting should limit marathon sets.
2. Tiebreak Pick
- Tiebreak Played – YES (-110) ✅ Our Pick
- Tiebreak Played – NO (-130)
FAA’s serve has been on fire this tournament — he’s holding at an 88% clip — and Sinner rarely gives up breaks. That’s a recipe for at least one set reaching 6-6. Backing a tiebreak at plus money feels like a sharp play here
3. Set Betting
Our Pick: Sinner 3-1 (+260 odds)
- FAA’s serving too well not to steal a set.
- But asking him to outlast Sinner in best-of-five? Big ask.
Want to approach tennis betting from different angles? Check out our comprehensive tennis betting odds & guide for expert strategies to make informed wagers on every match.
Keys to the Match
What Sinner Needs to Do
- Keep first-serve percentage high and control tempo.
- Exploit the FAA’s weaker backhand in baseline exchanges.
- Stay patient — FAA will have hot patches.
What FAA Needs to Do
- Protect his serve at all costs — stay above 70% first serves.
- Attack early in rallies, especially off the forehand.
- Shorten points. He can’t grind Sinner down physically.
Predictions Recap
- Winner: Jannik Sinner 🟢
- Set Score: 3-1 Sinner
- Game Totals: Under 32.5
- Best Bet: Tiebreak – Yes
This has all the makings of a blockbuster, but Sinner’s been a different beast on hard courts in 2025. FAA’s magical run probably ends here — though don’t be shocked if he takes a set and makes Sinner sweat.
Where to Watch the US Open 2025 Semifinals 🇺🇸
- TV Broadcast: Semifinals air on ESPN and select matches on ABC.
- Streaming: Available on the ESPN App or ESPN+ (plans start at $11.99/month or $119.99/year).
- Radio: Live audio on SiriusXM, ESPN Xtra (channel 81).
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