Australian Open Final: Alcaraz vs Djokovic Odds, Picks & Live Stream
The Australian Open men’s final is set for Sunday, February 1, 2026, with Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. ET on the Melbourne hard courts. The top seed meets the most accomplished hard-court player in Grand Slam history, with a title — and momentum — on the line.
From a betting angle, this final comes down to control over five sets. Alcaraz brings speed and point-ending power; Djokovic brings return depth, patience, and unmatched experience in Australian Open finals. The odds reflect that tension: Alcaraz is a slight favorite, Djokovic close enough to make every set competitive and every market live deep into the match.
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Alcaraz vs Djokovic Odds Outlook & Expert Picks
Match Winner Odds (Best @ bet365)
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline
Alcaraz holds the narrow edge because he can win points in more ways. His forehand penetration, willingness to finish at net, and ability to accelerate rallies give him scoring options that Djokovic no longer accesses as easily over five sets.
Djokovic’s edge lies in consistency and tactical clarity, but against Alcaraz, extended neutral exchanges increasingly favor the younger player. Over a long final, Alcaraz’s ability to end rallies rather than simply extend them is the differentiator. This is a thin price -334 at bet365 — but justified.
Set Betting Odds (Best @ bet365)
Pick: Alcaraz 3–2
Djokovic rarely goes quietly in Slam finals, particularly in Australia. His return game alone keeps sets close, and tiebreaks remain a real threat. Expect momentum shifts, mid-match adjustments, and at least one set where Djokovic’s depth and discipline force errors.
A five-set outcome reflects both players’ strengths: Djokovic’s resistance and Alcaraz’s finishing power. It’s the most accurate expression of the matchup.
Total Games Odds (Best @ bet365)
Pick: Over 38.5 Games
This line assumes either a competitive four-setter or a full five-setter. Given Djokovic’s serve protection and Alcaraz’s tendency to absorb early pressure before accelerating, the over has multiple viable paths.
Tie-breaks are likely. Long sets are likely. Blowouts are not.
Supporting Prop
Pick: Djokovic to Win at Least One Set
This is a structural play, not a narrative one. Djokovic has taken sets off Alcaraz consistently, including in recent Slam meetings. His return game alone prevents clean sweeps unless the opponent sustains elite aggression for three straight sets — a rare ask in a Slam final.
Road to This Match
Carlos Alcaraz Path
Alcaraz’s run to the final was defined by his five-set comeback over Alexander Zverev in the semifinals, where cramps flipped the match after he had been cruising early. Zverev even served for the match in the decider before Alcaraz surged back, echoing his previous five-set escape against Sinner in last year’s French Open final. Throughout the fortnight, Alcaraz has looked the most complete player in the field, and now arrives as the clear favorite, chasing his first Australian Open title and a career Grand Slam.
Novak Djokovic Path
Djokovic produced one of the performances of the tournament by knocking out two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. He saved 16 break points overall and went a perfect 8-for-8 on break points in the deciding set, reasserting his control in Melbourne. Entering the tournament as a rare underdog, Djokovic used the odds as fuel, grinding down the favorite with trademark physical and mental pressure. Now 10–0 in Australian Open finals, he moves within one match of a historic 25th Grand Slam title.
What the Numbers Show: Alcaraz vs Djokovic
Head-to-Head & Surface Snapshot
| Metric | Alcaraz | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Head-to-Head (All Matches) | 4 | 5 |
| Hard Court H2H | 1 | 2 |
| Grand Slam H2H | 3 | 2 |
🎾 Grand Slam Meetings — Alcaraz vs Djokovic
| Year | Tournament | Round | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | French Open | SF | 6‑3, 5‑7, 6‑1, 6‑1 | Djokovic |
| 2023 | Wimbledon | Final | 1‑6, 7‑6(6), 6‑1, 3‑6, 6‑4 | Alcaraz |
| 2024 | Wimbledon | Final | 6‑2, 6‑2, 7‑6(4) | Alcaraz |
| 2025 | Australian Open | Quarterfinal | 4‑6, 6‑4, 6‑3, 6‑4 | Djokovic |
| 2025 | US Open | Semifinal | 6‑4, 7‑6(4), 6‑2 | Alcaraz |
Final Betting Card
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alcaraz |
| Correct Score | Alcaraz 3–2 |
| Total Games | Over 38.5 |
| Set Prop | Djokovic to Win a Set |
Where to Watch Alcaraz vs Djokovic Tennis Game
- Live Streaming: ESPN+
- Television: ESPN / ESPN2
- Replays: ESPN+
Final Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz def. Novak Djokovic 6–4, 3–6, 7–6, 4–6, 6–3
Djokovic will extend this final deep and force Alcaraz to prove patience as well as power. But over five sets, Alcaraz’s ability to finish points from neutral positions and dictate with the forehand should gradually tilt the balance.
This profiles as a championship match decided not by errors, but by who takes control first in the final set — and that edge now belongs, narrowly, to Alcaraz.
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