Australian Open: Martinez vs Djokovic Odds, Picks & Live Stream
If you’re looking for a reliable anchor match on your Australian Open bet slip, this is about as close to “safe money” as men’s tennis gets in January. Novak Djokovic returns to Melbourne — his personal playground — to open his campaign against Spain’s Pedro Martínez, a solid grinder who’s earned his way onto the big stage but now faces one of the toughest opening draws imaginable.
Djokovic has made a career out of starting majors fast, clean, and ruthless, especially at the Australian Open, where his combination of elite movement, return pressure, and mental toughness turns early rounds into tune-ups rather than battles. Martinez, meanwhile, is a capable baseline player with good clay instincts, but hard courts against elite defenders have historically been his weakest matchup.
From a betting perspective, this is not about whether Djokovic wins — it’s about how to extract value from a heavily one-sided market. Let’s break down the smartest angles.
Player Form & Hard-Court Trends
Novak Djokovic
- ATP Ranking (start of 2026): #4
- AO Titles: 10 Australian Open championships (record)
- Current AO win-loss record: 99-10 at the Australian Open
- Hard court win rate: ~84.4 % career on hard courts
- Grand Slam Record: 24 Grand Slam singles titles is the record in men’s tennis.
Pedro Martinez
- ATP Ranking: Ranked ATP #71, with success at the Challenger level and sporadic top-50 wins.
- Career surface splits: Clay (~59 % career), Hard (~43 % career)
- Recent form: Includes ATP Challenger titles but limited deep runs at Grand Slams.
Head-to-Head Snapshot
| Player | Career H2H | Hard-Court Edge % | Grand Slam Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Djokovic | 0-0 | 84.4%+ | 10-time AO champion |
| Martinez | 0-0 | ~59% | Only draw experience |
Quick takeaway: Djokovic is dominant; Martinez is solid but outclassed in every measurable stat.
Don’t guess — bet informed. Our Tennis Betting Odds & Guide tracks line movement, matchup trends, and sharp angles across every major tournament.
Best Bets: Current Odds & Line Movement
Here are the most compelling betting lines and angles to consider:
Pick 1: Match Winner – Novak Djokovic Moneyline
Reasoning: Djokovic is 99–10 all-time at the Australian Open, the best win rate of any player at a single Grand Slam. He rarely loses in first-round matches in Melbourne and owns a massive edge in serve + return metrics on hard courts versus clay-first opponents like Martinez.
Given how short the favorite odds are, backing Djokovic outright is low-risk. His Grand Slam experience and 90% first-round AO straight-set rate give confidence. Odds at -3300 with bet365 justify backing Djokovic straight. Expect a clinical performance.
Pick 2: Set Betting – Djokovic 3–0 Set Win
Reasoning: Djokovic has won 19 of his last 22 Australian Open first-round matches in straight sets. Martinez has few career wins over top-10 players at Grand Slams, and his break-point conversion drops sharply against elite returners, a bad matchup here.
Pick 3: Total Games – Over 29.5
Reasoning: Djokovic often plays controlled early rounds, allowing service holds before tightening late. Since 2021, over 29.5 games have been cashed in more than half of his last 10 AO openers, even in straight-set wins featuring at least one extended set. Their styles suggest a competitive first set and a possible second set slip. Over 29.5 games at -125 with bet365 is appealing. Historically, Djokovic vs qualifiers often hit this mark.
Pick 4: Props to Watch – Martinez +8.5 Games
Djokovic rarely empties the tank early in majors. In his last 10 Australian Open first rounds, more than half of his opponents covered +8.5 games, even while losing 3–0. Martinez’s baseline consistency can keep sets competitive without threatening the result.
🧾 Prediction Recap
| Market | Expert Pick |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | Novak Djokovic |
| Set Score | Djokovic 3–0 |
| Total Games | Over 29.5 |
| Value Under | Martinez +8.5 |
Watch Live: How to Stream Martinez vs Djokovic
- Streaming: ESPN+ streams all Australian Open matches live.
- Coverage: Follow multiple courts with live commentary and stats.
- Catch-Up: Replays and on-demand access available on ESPN+.
- Main Draw Broadcast: Matches air on ESPN, ESPN2, and Tennis Channel.
Final Score Prediction
Prediction: Djokovic wins 3-0 in sets and controls play right from the baseline. Expect Djokovic to assert his experience and defensive mastery, especially in key moments and on return games.
Projected Score Line: Novak Djokovic 3–0 Pedro Martinez (6-3, 6-2, 6-2) — classic dominant Grand Slam start. This scenario aligns with Djokovic’s deep tournament experience and provides a strong base for both straight bets and set-bet plays.
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