UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Odds & Prediction
- Date: Saturday, August 16, 2025
- Location: United Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA
- Broadcast: ESPN+ PPV
- Division: Middleweight Championship
The middleweight throne is on the line at UFC 319, and it doesn’t get more dangerous than this: champion Dricus du Plessis vs. the undefeated wrecking ball Khamzat Chimaev.
Du Plessis has made a career out of breaking fighters with suffocating pressure and unorthodox-but-lethal striking. Chimaev? He’s a storm in human form; chain wrestling, top control, and ground-and-pound that feels like it’s coming from the ceiling.
It’s a collision course we all saw coming, and whoever wins might define the division for years. Activate the exclusive bet365 Bonus Code and dive into this encounter with an extra boost!
Tale of the Tape
Recent Form – Fighter Snapshots
- Du Plessis – Took the crown by stopping Sean Strickland, then proved he could go five hard rounds in a gritty title defense over Israel Adesanya.
- Chimaev – Flattened Robert Whittaker on the scorecards, barely taking a clean shot in the process. His unbeaten record? Still sparkling.
| Stat | Du Plessis | Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Wins | 7 | 6 |
| Sig Strikes/Min | 6.12 | 5.36 |
| Sig Strike Accuracy | 50.60% | 70.87% |
| TD per 15 min | 2.55 | 4.31 |
| TD Accuracy | 50.00% | 46.67% |
| Sub Avg per 15 min | 0.73 | 2.77 |
Odds Outlook: Moneyline
Sportsbooks have Chimaev as the favorite — undefeated mystique will do that. But Du Plessis has been here before and made underdog bettors very happy. Chimaev’s danger window is early; Du Plessis’ path is the long grind.
Over/Under: Will It Go the Distance?
This is the puzzle. Chimaev has the firepower and wrestling to end it inside two rounds, but Du Plessis’ durability is ridiculous. If we see the start of Round 3, the champ’s chances spike hard.
Best lean: Over 1.5 Rounds (-180) — Du Plessis can weather storms most fighters drown in.
Best Bets & Props – Where’s the Value?
- Du Plessis by Late KO (+600) – Chimaev fades? Du Plessis pours it on.
- Chimaev by Submission (+350) – If he’s going to finish the champ, this is the most likely path.
- Fight Ends in Rounds 3–5 (+400) – Perfect middle ground if you can’t pick a side.
Final Call: Du Plessis by Late KO
Expect Chimaev to start like a hurricane — fast, violent, and on top. But if Du Plessis survives that early barrage, his pace and toughness will drag the challenger into the deep end. And in those waters, “Stillknocks” has been here, done that.
Recap – Best Bets for UFC 319
- Du Plessis ML (+200)
- Du Plessis by Late KO (+600)
- Chimaev by Submission (+350) – Hedge Play
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-180)
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