UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez Odds 08/09/2025
We’ve got ourselves a gritty middleweight scrap headlining UFC Fight Night this Saturday: Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez. No belt on the line, but don’t let that fool you; this one’s got real implications for the top 10.
It’s your classic “power vs. pace” matchup. Dolidze hits like a freight train. Hernandez? He’s a grinder who never stops coming forward. Someone’s leaving, bloody, maybe broken. But with an exclusive bet365 bonus code for new players, your safety is secured for your first bet. Let’s get into it!
The Tale of the Tape
Quick read: Dolidze is a kill-shot artist. He’s not super active, but when he lets one go, it’s nasty. Meanwhile, Hernandez is like that friend who won’t stop texting, just constant pressure until you fold. He averages over 6 takedowns per fight, which is straight-up wild.
| Stat | Dolidze | Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Wins | 8 | 7 |
| Sig Strikes/Min | 3.58 | 4.50 |
| Sig Strike Accuracy | 48.8% | 68.6% |
| TD per 15 min | 1.11 | 6.27 |
| TD Accuracy | 40.7% | 45.0% |
| Sub Avg per 15 min | 0.91 | 1.95 |
What it tells us:
Hernandez is way more active, both on his feet and with takedowns. Nearly double the strike volume, over 6 takedowns per fight, and more than 2x the sub attempts. Plus, his accuracy is shockingly clean for a guy who never stops moving.
Dolidze? He’s way more selective but dangerous. If he connects, it matters. He just doesn’t throw nearly as much, and that could cost him in a 5-round grind.
Odds Outlook: Moneyline (via bet365)
Basically, a coin flip. Oddsmakers lean toward Hernandez because of his gas tank and recent momentum. Dolidze’s the more dangerous guy early, but he fades hard if you survive the storm.
Over/Under: Will It Go the Distance?
Bit of a toss-up here. Dolidze can absolutely flatline dudes in Round 1. But if he doesn’t? It’s Fluffy’s world. Hernandez has a habit of dragging people into deep water and watching them panic.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-180)
Despite the finishing rates, Hernandez’s style tends to extend fights unless he finds a late sub. Dolidze has gone the distance with elite guys like Vettori. Expect a war of attrition more than an early blitz.
Best Bets & Props – Where’s the Value?
Let’s cut to the chase:
- Best Bet: Hernandez by Decision (+210)
- He’s not a big finisher, but he is a pace bully. If Roman doesn’t KO him early, Fluffy’s gonna outwork him and win on volume, takedowns, and control.
- Dolidze by KO (+550)
- If you’re gonna bet on Roman, don’t bother with the moneyline. If he wins, it’s gonna be by knockout and probably in the first 10 minutes. Worth a sprinkle.
- Fight Goes to Decision – Meh
- Wouldn’t touch this one. These guys have a combined 80%+ finish rate, and their styles don’t really scream “slow, technical chess match.”
Final Call: Hernandez by Decision
Here’s how it probably plays out: Dolidze starts hot and throws heavy early. If he catches Fluffy, hey, the fight’s over. But if he doesn’t? Hernandez will start chaining takedowns, wearing on him, piling up control time. Classic Fluffy performance.
Dolidze is dangerous, but Fluffy’s just more consistent.
Recap – Best Bets for UFC Fight Night
- Hernandez ML (-334)
- Hernandez by Decision (+210)
- Dolidze by KO (+550), Only hedge worth looking at
- Avoid: Dolidze by Decision, Fight Goes Distance
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