Wake Forest @ Duke NCAAB 01/24/2026
Saturday’s ACC slate gives us exactly what January college hoops is all about: a confident, top-of-the-table Duke squad welcoming a Wake Forest team trying to steady itself in league play—and giving bettors three clear markets to attack: Moneyline, Totals, and Spread. On this epic Matchday of ACC play, Duke enters 6-0 and first in the standings, while Wake Forest sits 13th at 2-4. Recent form points hard toward Cameron’s side of the ledger: Duke’s riding a five-game heater; Wake has dropped three of five. And yes, the last head-to-head was a one-sided night in Durham, which matters when you’re pricing probability and assessing floor/ceiling outcomes.
This matchup also stacks up neatly in the numbers: Duke averages roughly low-80s per game in this sample, while holding opponents around 70. Wake is closer to the mid-70s on offense and near 80 allowed. That profile leans toward Duke’s tempo and efficiency, setting the tone, and it nudges the total into a range where you can credibly build a case for the Over if the Demon Deacons keep contact.
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Our betting predictions — Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Duke Blue Devils
Main Tip: Total – Over 149.5
1) Total: Over 149.5 (playable 148.5 to 150.5) at approximately -115 at FanDuel. Why: Duke’s per-game scoring profile sits a tick above 82 in this sample, and Wake checks in mid-70s. Defensively, Wake has allowed close to 79 per outing, which is dangerous math against a Blue Devils offense that gets downhill, sprays, and forces long closeouts. Even if Wake trails, their catch-up possessions can fuel pace. Model probability: 57% to clear 149.5 in standard endgame scenarios. Tip: Over 149.5 at or near -115.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Duke to win
2) Moneyline: Duke to win at or better than -260. Why: Duke is 6-0 in this ACC sample and sits at the top of the table, with form and matchup edges on both ends. The Blue Devils’ balanced scoring plus their defensive floor at home is a strong combo. Wake’s recent 2-3 stretch suggests a slimmer margin for error on the road. Model probability: 72%. Tip: Duke ML up to -260 as a parlay anchor or straight.
Tip 3: Spread – Duke -8.5
3) Spread: Duke -8.5 (playable to -9.5) at -115 at DraftKings. Why: My power rating lands near -9 on a neutral-adjusted basis and -10 if you weight Duke’s home edge in this spot. Wake’s perimeter defense has shown cracks against efficient shot creation, and Duke’s combination of paint touches and catch-and-shoot accuracy can stretch margins late. Model probability: roughly 55% at -8.5. Tip: Duke -8.5/-9 at around -115.
Team Statistics — Form snapshot and betting-relevant trends
Duke Blue Devils (1st place, 6-0 ACC):
- Form: 5 wins in their last 5. Most recently, they rolled on the road, winning by roughly 30.
- Scoring profile: About 82 points per game in this sample, conceding around 70 per game. That’s a double-digit average margin, suggesting their offense is traveling, and their defense is connected.
- Table context: Unbeaten in conference play and sitting on top, Duke has been clean at home (2-0). The underlying differential fits what bettors want to see from a favorite: consistent offense plus restraining defense, limiting long opponent runs.
- Coach: Jon Scheyer’s group tends to balance pace and efficiency, making them reliable chalk when they take care of the ball and get early-clock looks.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (13th place, 2-4 ACC):
- Form: 2 wins in last 5. They just took a double-digit home loss to SMU, which highlights the volatility that’s tripped them up in late-game windows.
- Scoring profile: Around 74–75 points per game in this sample, with roughly 79 allowed. The defense giving up close to 80 is a key betting indicator: against elite offenses, it can turn a mid-possession game into a high-variance shootout.
- Table context: There’s bounce in their home splits, but on the road, the consistency hasn’t been there yet. If Wake can limit second-chance looks and keep Duke off the stripe, they hang; if not, the margin can widen quickly.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Per recent reports, Duke expects guard Tyrese Proctor to be available, a stabilizer who spaces and facilitates at a high clip. Freshman standout Cooper Flagg has been a two-way tone-setter—rim pressure, shot-making, and activity in passing lanes. Forward Maliq Brown (shoulder) has been sidelined, trimming some interior depth, but Duke’s perimeter creation remains the headline. For Wake Forest, Tre’Von Spillers and Omaha Biliew have been tracked as available in recent updates, which helps the frontcourt rotation and rebounding punch. Historically, Duke has controlled recent meetings in Durham, and while the building isn’t listed here, a typical Duke home environment translates into an edge in whistle, rhythm, and shot quality. Net-net: personnel leans Blue Devils; Wake must win the glass and the turnover margin to offset Duke’s shot creation.
Last direct match — Duke Blue Devils vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The last meeting in Durham was one-way traffic, with Duke winning by 33. The shot profile tilted Blue Devils from the jump.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Duke Blue Devils: 5-0
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 2-3
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Over 149.5: This is our most actionable angle. Duke’s scoring baseline plus Wake’s tendency to allow efficient looks projects into the high 140s/low 150s band. If Wake stays within two possessions into the final five minutes, the Over probability climbs thanks to pace and late fouls. Duke Moneyline: The model gives Duke a 72% edge. That’s a sturdy straight-play or a clean parlay piece. Duke -8.5/-9: Duke’s profile at home, combined with Wake’s defensive leakage, supports a two-to-three-possession separation by halftime and a controlled close.
How we got here: the numbers argue Duke’s balance—low-80s scoring pace against a defense conceding high-70s—creates a favorable game script for both a straight-up win and a cover in the -8.5 to -9.5 corridor. Layer in recent form (Duke 5-0; Wake 2-3) and a lopsided prior in Durham, and you have a consistent, data-backed case. Ride Duke ML, consider Duke -8.5, and play the Over if you can catch 149.5 or better.
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