Wake Forest @ Michigan NCAA Basketball 11/11/2025
This one’s got November juice. Wake Forest rolls into Detroit to face Michigan at Little Caesars Arena on Tuesday night in a matchup that doubles as an early measuring stick and a pretty intriguing play for bettors. Michigan opened its season with a blitz that suggested Dusty May’s offense still hums, while Wake arrives with a veteran backcourt and the added confidence of having edged the Wolverines in last year’s meeting. Recent form leans slightly toward Michigan, but Wake’s continuity and defensive grit have a way of turning tight games into clutch-time showcases.
That push-and-pull is exactly where we’ll build our three angles: moneyline, spread, and a total that might surprise, given both teams’ defensive profiles over the last handful of games. We’ll talk through why Michigan’s depth and size are real factors, why Wake’s guard play won’t be intimidated, and how tempo and shot quality could ultimately swing the over/under. Tip is set for 6:30 PM ET, neutral-floor feel in Detroit, and the early-season edges are more about matchups than reputations. Let’s dive into the plays we like—and the probabilities that back them up.
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Our betting predictions for the match Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Michigan Wolverines
Main Tip: Over/Under – Over 140s Totals
Our primary tip: Over 140.0 Points Total at -125 with Caesars Sportsbook. Across their last five games dating back to March and Week 1 of this season, Michigan’s offense has settled around an average in the low 80s per outing, while Wake Forest has averaged in the low 70s. Even if we temper Michigan’s opener burst, the Wolverines’ spacing, ball movement, and rim pressure under May should create efficient looks early and often. Wake’s guards can punch back with downhill drives and secondary creation. Add the neutral-site shooting backdrops and a couple of free-throw heavy segments, and this profiles as a steady-scoring game rather than a grind.
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Tip 2: Spread – Michigan -8.5
Our secondary prediction leans on the Michigan -8.5 spread at -120 with Caesars Sportsbook. Michigan’s last five form suggests they’ve been about +10 on average margin, buoyed by improved shot quality and length at the rim. Wake’s backcourt is battle-tested, but the Wolverines’ depth, size, and switchability across the wings can gradually wear on rotations that are thinner due to injuries. If Michigan keeps a modest turnover rate and wins the glass, that’s the recipe for a cover.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Michigan to Win
Finally, the Michigan Moneyline is on the line with the best odds with BetMGM Sportsbook. The Wolverines carry the better two-way balance at the moment and are playing closer to home. Wake will hunt matchups with its guards, but Michigan’s combination of physicality and pace projects slightly better over 40 minutes. This still sets up as competitive—expect a couple of second-half swings—but the late-game edges lean Michigan’s way.
Team Statistics
- Michigan Wolverines: Under Dusty May, Michigan has leaned into tempo — short possessions, spread pick-and-roll, and quick-trigger threes when kick-outs are there. In their opener, the Wolverines shot an eye-popping clip from the field and from three, and they’ve followed with another runaway result since. The notable trend: improved spacing has boosted shot quality, and the ball has moved. On the glass, Danny Wolf has provided double-double level production to steady second-chance opportunities and end defensive possessions.
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Steve Forbes’ group prides itself on shot selection and late-game composure. Last season’s profile leaned toward respectable scoring output but stronger prevention — allowing opponents in the mid-50s on average through the initial sample. Wake’s backcourt is the identity; Sallis and Hildreth both create off the bounce, and the Demon Deacons are comfortable toggling between half-court execution and opportunistic transition chances.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Hunter Sallis (Wake Forest): A smooth wing who can create his own shot, Sallis’ production settled around the high teens per outing last season, with solid splits from the field and from beyond the arc. He tends to elevate in late possessions — the kind of player who can string together a flurry in two minutes and swing momentum. His shot-making in last year’s meeting was a key separator.
- Cameron Hildreth (Wake Forest): A steady second scorer with playmaking chops. He’s hovered in the mid-teens per game and brings functional strength, a reliable handle, and improved perimeter touch. He’s also a culture guy — over 1,000 career points in Winston-Salem — and keeps Wake organized.
- Danny Wolf (Michigan): The 7-footer’s early production has settled into a double-double neighborhood, and Michigan leverages him as a hub — post touches, short-roll reads, and rim protection. When he’s healthy and active, Michigan’s floor balance improves dramatically.
- Roddy Gayle Jr. (Michigan): A slashing guard who fills gaps — secondary playmaking, strong drives, and defensive length at the point of attack. His output against Wake last season led the Wolverines, and his game fits May’s faster pace.
- Tre Donaldson (Michigan): Glue guard traits — rebounding from the backcourt, toughness, and enough scoring to punish gaps. He nearly posted a triple-category gem against Wake last fall and helps stabilize the tempo when Michigan wants to run smart, not just run fast.
- External/Health Notes: Michigan noted a minor leg issue for Wolf earlier in the season, but he returned and looked comfortable, even stepping out to hit from deep. Transfer guard Rubin Jones was trending toward availability around last year’s meeting. Wake’s camp has been relatively quiet on notable injuries.
- Coaching matters, too: Dusty May’s system emphasizes speed and spacing; Steve Forbes’ groups execute in the half-court and defend their tails off.
Last direct match: Michigan Wolverines vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake snagged last season’s head-to-head by a single bucket in a possession game. The Demon Deacons put together a double-digit run late in the second half, then held strong down the stretch as Michigan tried to rally. The Wolverines had their chances, but Wake’s perimeter composure and late-game shot-making were the difference.
Performance last 5 matches
- – Michigan Wolverines: 4 wins, 1 loss. The trend lines show improved offensive efficiency and a defense that, while occasionally trading baskets during opponent runs, tightens in the final 10 minutes.
- – Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 3 wins, 2 losses. The profile reflects a team that can grind out results even when shots aren’t falling, aided by veteran decision-making and timely stops.
Last match results Michigan Wolverines and Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- – Michigan: Opened the season with a runaway performance over Oakland, highlighting pace, spacing, and a bench that piled on productive minutes. Shot-making popped, and rim protection provided the exclamation points.
- – Wake Forest: Took care of business against Morehead State in the opener, leaning on their backcourt to control tempo and finishing the game with more composure and cleaner late possessions.
Michigan Wolverines: Current Form Snapshot
- – Recent Results: 4-1 over the last five, including a commanding performance in their most recent outing.
- – Offense: Pace-up under May, with quick decisions and high shot quality. In the opener, Michigan shot at an elite clip from both the field and beyond the arc, a promising indicator that the spacing is working.
- – Shooting Splits: Early sample suggests strong effective field goal percentage thanks to paint touches and drive-and-kick threes.
- – Free Throws: Emphasis on rim pressure should keep attempts solid, with guards attacking and Wolf drawing contact.
- – Rebounding: Wolf’s double-double profile anchors the glass; wings chip in on the defensive boards to fuel transition.
- – Big Ten Context: It’s early days, but the eye test looks dramatically improved from last year’s struggles. The Wolverines have the profile of a middle-to-upper Big Ten riser if the shooting sustains and turnovers stay manageable.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Current Form Snapshot
- – Recent Results: 3-2 across the last five, including a comfortable win over Morehead State.
- – Offense: Balanced approach anchored by shot creation from Sallis and Hildreth. They’re comfortable running late-clock actions and hunting matchups.
- – Defense: Wake’s early-season defensive average last year settled in the mid-50s allowed, a testament to connected rotations and forcing tough mid-range looks.
- – Shooting Splits: Sallis’ efficiency — flirting with 49% from the field and around 40% from deep last season — lifts the entire offense. Hildreth stretches defenses enough to open lanes.
- – Rebounding/Physicality: Positionally sound; not oversized, but strong on the glass by committee and disciplined in box-outs.
- – ACC Context: Wake projects as a tough out with NCAA upside when the guards are rolling and the defense strings together stops.
How the matchup plays out
- – Tempo vs. Control: Michigan wants to turn this into a run-and-shoot affair with Wolf stabilizing the interior and wing shooters spacing the floor. Wake can play at pace, but its best version is deliberate, letting Sallis/Hildreth manipulate switches and pick their spots.
- – Glass and Fouls: If Michigan wins the rebounding battle and keeps Wake off the line, the Wolverines gain both extra possessions and a late-game cushion. Conversely, if Sallis and Hildreth live in the lane and draw contact, Wake can slow the tempo and reframe this to its liking.
- – Shot Quality: The team that generates corner threes and paint attempts at volume will win the math — Michigan appears better positioned here, but Wake’s late-clock creators can paper over dry spells.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We lean Michigan on the moneyline because of pace, spacing, and a sturdier interior led by Wolf, with the in-state environment as a subtle nudge. We like Over the total given Michigan’s tempo and efficiency, plus Wake’s ability to score via downhill guard play. And we’ll back Michigan against the spread as short favorites on the strength of rebounding and improved shot quality. Wake absolutely has the guard play to make this tight, as last season’s single-possession finish showed, but Michigan’s trajectory under May suggests a few more clean looks and extra boards — the exact ingredients to cash our trio of angles.
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