Winthrop Eagles @ Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAAB 12/28/2025
If you’re scrolling for a holiday-weekend edge, this non-conference tilt checks a lot of intriguing boxes. Winthrop rolls into Lubbock on Sunday (2:00 PM ET, 1:00 PM local) with some real scoring rhythm, while Texas Tech is fresh off a statement road upset that put a megaphone on the Red Raiders’ December momentum. On paper, it’s Big South versus Big 12, but don’t let the conference decals fool you—Winthrop’s been covering numbers and playing with pace. Texas Tech, under head coach Grant McCasland, has layered in shot-making and late-game toughness, even as the defensive consistency remains a work-in-progress.
From a betting angle, the market will likely lean heavily toward the Red Raiders at the United Supermarkets Arena. Still, the Eagles’ tempo and confidence can force a higher-possession game—great news if you’re peeking at totals. The situational setup favors Tech (home, better athletes, and that post-Duke confidence bump), but Winthrop’s recent form against the number suggests this won’t be a cakewalk. Read on for our three favorite angles—moneyline, spread, and total—plus probabilities and projected fair odds in American format to help you shop the number.
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Our betting predictions: Winthrop Eagles @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
Best Bet: Total – Over 148.5
1) Total: Over 148.5 at -130 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Why we like it: The recent form screams pace. Over their last five, Texas Tech has averaged about 85.4 per game while allowing roughly 78.8, and Winthrop has averaged close to 98.2 while allowing around 67.2. Yes, some of Winthrop’s opponents have been softer, but stylistically, this sets up for more possessions and clean looks, especially with Tech’s perimeter creators humming and Winthrop willing to run. – Probability and fair odds: We project a 58% hit rate for the Over at this range, which translates to fair odds near -130. Betting tip: Over 148.5 up to 150.5.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Texas Tech to win
2) Moneyline: Texas Tech to win at best odds with bet365. Why we like it: Home court, athletic edge, and late-game shot creation. McCasland’s guards are in a groove, and Tech’s confidence after the marquee road scalp is real. Winthrop’s been strong against the spread, but stepping into Lubbock against a bigger, deeper rotation is a different ask. Probability and fair odds: Texas Tech 78% to win, which equates to a fair moneyline around -355 (Winthrop fair price about +355). If the market juices beyond that into heavy chalk territory, consider parlay or live angles; otherwise, the straight moneyline is very likely to land.
Tip 3: Spread – Texas Tech -12.5
3) Spread: Texas Tech -12.5. Why we like it: Our numbers make this closer to -13.5 on a neutral pace projection, with Tech’s efficiency and physicality separating over 40 minutes. Winthrop’s recent scoring spikes came against lower-tier opposition; Tech’s length and on-ball pressure should shave a few of those easy transition chances. Probability and fair odds: We project a 56% cover probability at -12.5, good for fair odds around -125 at bet365. Betting tip: Texas Tech -12.5 or better; pass if it balloons beyond -14.5.
Team Statistics
Texas Tech Red Raiders — trending up under Grant McCasland
- Form snapshot: Texas Tech has taken four of its last five, highlighted by a one-possession road stunner that should resonate all winter. The Red Raiders have looked increasingly comfortable in late-clock situations, with multiple guards who can create.
- Scoring profile (last five): Tech has averaged roughly 85.4 per contest and conceded about 78.8. That blend tells a story: the shot-making is there, the defensive baseline is improving, but still volatile.
- Style markers: Recently ranked in the AP Top 25, the Red Raiders are leaning into a balanced perimeter attack with a top option who can carry stretches. The defense has shown spurts of physicality, but, by McCasland’s own standard, is still searching for a consistent gear for all 40 minutes.
- Table/standing context: Big 12 play looms, and this spot is a chance to bank a convincing non-conference home result before the schedule toughens. The résumé has pop; Tech is building toward conference season with momentum and national respect.
Winthrop Eagles — high-tempo confidence with caveats
- Form snapshot: Winthrop has taken three of its last five, including multiple blowout wins. The loss in that run came in a high-possession game that still showcased offensive flow.
- Scoring profile (last five): The Eagles have averaged about 98.2 per outing while allowing roughly 67.2. Note the opponent quality: some of those wins came versus non-D1 foes, which can inflate margins and efficiency. Still, the willingness to push the pace is real and translates.
- Style markers: They’ll run at you, shoot early in the clock, and try to turn any miss into a quick two the other way. Their recent against-the-spread mark suggests the market has been a touch slow to catch up to their tempo and spacing.
- Table/standing context: In the Big South, Winthrop looks like a team that could shape the top tier again. This trip to a Big 12 floor is a measuring stick—valuable experience, win or lose, and a data point for when league play starts.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Texas Tech’s JT Toppin has been the alpha, averaging around 21.9 per game this season and flashing multiple 30-plus nights. Christian Anderson’s surge—punctuated by points, assists, double-doubles, and recent Big 12 Player of the Week honors—gives Tech a second creator who can control tempo. LeJuan Watts’ breakout showed the depth of scoring variance around them. Up front, monitor injuries: Luke Bamgboye (concussion protocol) has been uncertain; Marial Akuentok and Josiah Moseley have also been unavailable. Defensively, Tech’s allowed around the mid-70s per game, and free-throw variance has surfaced. External angles: Winthrop travels into a raucous United Supermarkets Arena; Texas Tech has home whistle familiarity and the confidence spike from that marquee road result. The pace profile points to more possessions than average.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Texas Tech: 4 wins, 1 loss
- Winthrop: 3 wins, 2 losses.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card leans into the game environment first, then the matchup edges. The Over is our favorite look because both teams’ recent tempos and efficiency trends support more possessions and enough shot creation to clear a mid-to-high 140s number, especially with Tech’s offense in rhythm and Winthrop eager to run. On the moneyline, Texas Tech’s combination of home court, athleticism, and guard play under Grant McCasland profiles as reliable; we make the Red Raiders a strong favorite with fair ML pricing. For the spread, our projection sets Tech close to two touchdowns on their home floor. We’re comfortable with -12.5 at standard pricing and would still consider it playable up to -14, recognizing Winthrop’s ability to sneak in the back door if Tech’s late-game defense cools.
In short: Over 148.5 (projected) for pace, Texas Tech ML for stability, and Texas Tech -12.5 for the matchup advantage. That trio leans into pace, talent, and the building form of a ranked Big 12 squad playing in its own gym—exactly the kind of profile we trust at this point in December.
