Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions & Odds - La Liga Picks

As the curtain comes down on another thrilling La Liga season, Real Madrid welcomes Athletic Bilbao to the iconic Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday, May 23, 2026. With both teams having contrasting campaigns, the stakes may not be high in terms of standings, but the game promises a spectacle of soccer prowess. Real Madrid, under the stewardship of Álvaro Arbeloa, have secured the second spot with 83 points, boasting a commendable home record with an average of 2.56 Points Per Game. In stark contrast, Athletic Bilbao finds themselves in the unfamiliar territory of the lower half of the table, with their away form being particularly concerning, managing just 0.83 Points Per Game on the road. The betting odds reflect these performances, with BetMGM Sportsbook offering a Real Madrid win at -204, while Athletic Bilbao's chances are pegged at +475. With an average of 62.8% possession in recent matches, Real Madrid looks set to dominate proceedings. As we dive deeper into the soccer betting insights, let's explore some strategic betting angles for this matchup.

Our 3 Betting Predictions For Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao

1. Match Result: Real Madrid Win

Our soccer betting prediction leans towards a Real Madrid victory, primarily due to their dominant home performance and Athletic Bilbao's poor away record. With a win probability of 63%, Real Madrid's consistent form and superior head-to-head record make them clear favorites. BetMGM Sportsbook offers competitive odds at -204 for a home win, making it a value bet.

2. Total Goals: Under 3.5 Goals

Given the potential for rotation and the absence of key players for both sides, a low-scoring affair is plausible. Real Madrid's average of 0.80 goals conceded per game in recent matches suggests a tight defense. Hence, betting on under 3.5 total goals at odds of +120 appears to be a strategic choice for those seeking a balanced risk-reward ratio.

3. Both Teams to Score: Yes

Despite their recent struggles, Athletic Bilbao has shown the ability to find the net, especially in high-stakes matches. With 50% of their previous encounters against Real Madrid seeing both teams score, the odds of -161 for BTTS is enticing. Consider placing your bet with Bet365 for this market.

Further Predictions

Our tips

Total Goals

Under 2.5

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Real Madrid's last 5 matches.

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 3 of Athletic Bilbao's last 5 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Total Goals

Under 3.5

There have been under 3.5 goals scored in 5 of Real Madrid's last 5 matches.

There have been under 3.5 goals scored in 3 of Athletic Bilbao's last 5 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Total Goals

Under 4.5

There have been under 4.5 goals scored in 5 of Real Madrid's last 5 matches.

There have been under 4.5 goals scored in 3 of Athletic Bilbao's last 5 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Team Statistics

Real Madrid - Current Form

Real Madrid, with a record of 3 wins and 1 tie in their last 5 matches, have been consistent, especially at home with a 15-1-2 record. Their last outing saw them secure a narrow 1-0 victory against Sevilla, showcasing their defensive solidity. Holding the second spot in La Liga, they have a win percentage of 68% this season, highlighting their competitive edge.

Athletic Bilbao - Current Form

Athletic Bilbao's recent form has been shaky, with just 1 win in their last 5 matches. Currently 12th in the standings, they have a significantly lower win percentage of 34%. Their recent 1-1 tie against Celta de Vigo indicates a struggle to close games, a downside that could be exploited by Real Madrid.

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Key Player Statistics/Momentum/External Factors

Vinícius Júnior remains a pivotal figure for Real Madrid, having scored 22 goals this season. His recent injury scare against Sevilla might limit his playtime, but if fit, he is a significant threat. For Athletic Bilbao, the absence of key players like Nico Williams could hamper their attacking capabilities. External factors such as potential managerial changes and World Cup considerations might influence team dynamics, especially for Real Madrid, with Álvaro Arbeloa managing possibly his last game.

Last Direct Match: Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao

The last encounter saw Real Madrid secure a commanding 3-0 away win against Athletic Bilbao, further asserting their dominance in this fixture.

Performance Last 5 Matches

Performance

Real Madrid

Last games

Real Madrid performance of the last 6 home matches

Victories

66%

Over 2.5

66%

Athletic Bilbao

Last games

Athletic Bilbao performance of the last 4 away matches

Victories

25%

Over 2.5

50%

TrustnBet Predictions Summary

Our three betting tips for the Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao match provide a comprehensive strategy based on form, statistics, and historical trends. Real Madrid's home advantage and consistency make them favorites to win, with odds at -204. Considering the potential for a low-scoring game with under 3.5 goals at +120 and the likelihood of both teams scoring at -161, these predictions offer balanced risk and reward. Whether you're keen on match outcomes or goal markets, these insights are designed to enhance your soccer betting odds.