Deportivo Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul Predictions & Odds - Liga MX Picks

As the Liga MX semi-finals gear up for an exciting second leg, Deportivo Guadalajara (Chivas) will face Cruz Azul at the AKRON Stadium on Saturday, May 16, 2026. With the first leg ending in a thrilling 2-2 tie, both teams have everything to play for. Chivas, under the guidance of coach Gabriel Milito, will be looking to leverage their home advantage, despite being undermanned due to national team commitments. Cruz Azul, boasting a solid defensive record, aims to capitalize on Chivas' current vulnerabilities. Both teams have shown prowess in attack, with Cruz Azul averaging 1.75 goals per game this season and Chivas closely following with 1.62. The match promises high-stakes drama, making it a compelling fixture for soccer betting enthusiasts. Betting markets are buzzing, with platforms like BetMGM Sportsbook offering numerous options, whether it's moneyline, spread, or over/under markets.

Our 3 Betting Predictions for Deportivo Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul

Prediction 1: Cruz Azul to Win

Given Cruz Azul's recent form and their unbeaten streak against Chivas, they head into this matchup with a psychological edge. Chivas' personnel issues, with five key players absent, further tilt the scales in favor of Cruz Azul. The odds for a Cruz Azul victory are appealing, at +150, presenting a strong value proposition given the context.

Prediction 2: Under 2.5 Goals

With Chivas having to play a more defensive setup due to missing key offensive players, the match may see fewer goals. Cruz Azul's solid defense, conceding only 1.12 goals per game, supports this prediction. Betting on under 2.5 goals might be a strategic move, with odds at -110.

Prediction 3: Both Teams to Score - No

Considering Chivas' offensive challenges and Cruz Azul's defensive robustness, the likelihood of both teams finding the net seems low. Cruz Azul will try to keep Chivas at bay, and the odds of both teams not scoring are at +120, making this a valuable pick.

Further Predictions

Our tips

Double Chance

X2

Deportivo Guadalajara have drawn or lost 4 of their last 5 matches.

Cruz Azul have won or drawn 5 of their last 5 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Total Goals

Over 3.5

There have been over 3.5 goals scored in 2 of Deportivo Guadalajara's last 5 matches.

There have been over 3.5 goals scored in 3 of Cruz Azul's last 5 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Total Goals

Under 2.5

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 3 of Deportivo Guadalajara's last 5 matches.

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 2 of Cruz Azul's last 5 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Team Statistics

Deportivo Guadalajara (Chivas) - Current Form

Chivas comes into this semi-final second leg with mixed form, having secured only one win, three ties, and one loss in their last five matches. Despite their second-place finish in the regular season, their current momentum has been hampered by key player absences. Coach Gabriel Milito will have to make strategic adjustments to overcome these challenges and advance to the final.

Cruz Azul - Current Form

Cruz Azul has been in formidable form, winning three and drawing two of their last five encounters. Their strong defensive setup has been the backbone of their success, as they finished third in the regular season. Coach Joel Huiqui will aim to maintain their unbeaten streak against Chivas and secure a spot in the final.

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Key Player Statistics/Momentum/External Factors

Cruz Azul's Gabriel Fernández has been a standout performer, averaging 3.40 shots per 90 minutes, with 1.60 on target. His goal-scoring prowess will be crucial against a weakened Chivas defense. For Chivas, the absence of key players like Luis Romo and Roberto Alvarado will be a significant disadvantage. The backup goalkeeper situation also poses challenges, putting extra pressure on their defense. Despite the home advantage, Chivas' current roster situation is a critical external factor favoring Cruz Azul.

Last Direct Match: Deportivo Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul

The last encounter between these two teams ended in a 2-2 tie, setting the stage for a thrilling second leg.

Performance Last 5 Matches

Performance

Deportivo Guadalajara

Last games

Deportivo Guadalajara performance of the last 5 home matches

Victories

60%

Over 2.5

60%

Cruz Azul

Last games

Cruz Azul performance of the last 5 away matches

Victories

20%

Over 2.5

40%

TrustnBet Predictions Summary

Our soccer predictions for this high-stakes Liga MX semi-final suggest a Cruz Azul victory, an under 2.5 goals outcome, and a scenario where both teams do not score. These predictions are based on Cruz Azul's strong form, Chivas' roster challenges, and the defensive stability displayed by Cruz Azul throughout the season. The odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook further validate these recommendations, offering bettors an opportunity to capitalize on the current dynamics of both teams.