Deportivo Toluca vs CF Pachuca Predictions & Odds - Liga MX Picks

As the Liga MX Clausura 2026 Quarter-finals kick off, all eyes are on the exciting clash between Deportivo Toluca and CF Pachuca at La Bombonera on Sunday, May 3, 2026. This matchup promises a thrilling showcase of skill and strategy as both teams vie for a spot in the semi-finals. Toluca, under the guidance of manager Antonio Mohamed, will be looking to capitalize on their strong home record, while Pachuca seeks to break their recent streak of ties and regain winning form. Both teams have shown a penchant for attacking play, with Toluca averaging 2.00 goals per game and Pachuca registering 2.41. Betting enthusiasts can find value in this matchup with BetMGM Sportsbook offering competitive odds for various markets. Let's delve into the statistics and trends that could influence the outcome of this crucial encounter.

Our 3 Betting Predictions for Deportivo Toluca vs CF Pachuca

1. Match Winner: Deportivo Toluca

Our soccer betting prediction considers Toluca's impressive home record of 12 wins, 6 ties, and just 1 loss at La Bombonera. With Pachuca struggling to secure victories, their recent form showing no wins in 7 matches is a concern. BetMGM Sportsbook provides favorable odds of -122 for a Toluca win, making this a solid pick given their home advantage and superior form.

2. Both Teams to Score: Yes

Considering both teams' attacking prowess, with an average of over 2 goals per game, it's likely both will find the net. Toluca's Paulinho and Pachuca's Enner Valencia are key players to watch. BetMGM Sportsbook offers odds of -159 for both teams to score, which seems probable given the offensive talent on display.

3. Total Goals: Under 2.5

Despite the attacking capabilities of both sides, recent trends suggest a cagey affair with fewer goals. Toluca's last few matches have shown a tendency for under 2.5 goals. Bet365 offers odds of +115 for this market, providing a good opportunity for those anticipating a tight contest.

Further Predictions

Our tips

Total Goals

Over 3.5

There have been over 3.5 goals scored in 2 of Deportivo Toluca's last 6 matches.

There have been over 3.5 goals scored in 3 of CF Pachuca's last 4 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Total Goals

Over 2.5

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Deportivo Toluca's last 6 matches.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 3 of CF Pachuca's last 4 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Total Goals

Over 1.5

There have been over 1.5 goals scored in 6 of Deportivo Toluca's last 6 matches.

There have been over 1.5 goals scored in 4 of CF Pachuca's last 4 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Team Statistics

Deportivo Toluca's Current Form

Deportivo Toluca, coached by Antonio Mohamed, currently sits 5th in the league standings with 30 points. They have a strong home record and are coming off a resounding 4-1 victory against Club León. With a 55% win rate and only one home loss this season, Toluca is in excellent shape to make a deep playoff run.

CF Pachuca's Current Form

CF Pachuca, under Esteban Solari, ranks 4th in the league with 31 points. However, their recent form has been shaky, failing to secure a win in their last 7 matches, all ending in ties. Despite their struggles, Pachuca's ability to score remains undoubted, with an average of 2.41 goals per game this season.

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Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors

Deportivo Toluca's Paulinho is a standout performer, boasting an impressive 15 goals in the league and a total of 31 goals across all competitions. His partnership with Angulo Uriarte, who has chipped in with 11 goals, is crucial for Toluca's offensive threat. Meanwhile, Pachuca's attack is spearheaded by Enner Valencia and Oussama Idrissi, each contributing 5 goals. The absence of key players due to injuries and suspensions, such as Pachuca's Sergio Rodríguez and Alan Mozo, could also play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of this match.

Last Direct Match: Deportivo Toluca vs CF Pachuca

The last encounter between these two teams ended in a 1-1 tie, highlighting the competitive nature of their meetings.

Performance Last 5 Matches

Deportivo Toluca: 2 wins, 3 losses; CF Pachuca: 3 wins, 2 losses.

Performance

Deportivo Toluca

Last games

Deportivo Toluca performance of the last 6 home matches

Victories

66%

Over 2.5

66%

CF Pachuca

Last games

CF Pachuca performance of the last 4 away matches

Victories

50%

Over 2.5

75%

TrustnBet Predictions Summary

Our three betting tips highlight Toluca's potential to secure a home victory given their superior form and strong record at La Bombonera. The likelihood of both teams scoring is supported by their offensive capabilities, while the under 2.5 goals market offers value considering the potentially cautious approach in a playoff setting. These predictions are based on recent performances, statistical analysis, and the current form of both teams.