Leeds United vs Burnley FC Predictions & Odds - Premier League Picks

As we approach Matchday 35 of the Premier League, soccer betting enthusiasts are gearing up for an intriguing clash between Leeds United and Burnley FC at Elland Road. Scheduled for Friday, May 1, 2026, this match promises to be a significant encounter, particularly for Leeds, who are battling to secure their Premier League status for the next season. Leeds United, under the guidance of Daniel Farke, currently sit at 15th place with 40 points, while Burnley are already relegated, languishing in 19th place with just 20 points.

Leeds United have enjoyed a decent home record this season, with an average ball possession of 53% and approximately 4.1 shots on target per game at Elland Road. Burnley FC, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, averaging only 2.8 shots on target per match and maintaining a 44% possession rate. With the stakes high for Leeds, soccer betting odds are swaying heavily in their favor, and fans will be eager to see how they capitalize on this opportunity.

Our 3 Betting Predictions for Leeds United vs Burnley FC

Prediction 1: Leeds United to Win

Our soccer betting pick for this match is a home win for Leeds United. Given their superior recent form and the home advantage, Leeds are expected to secure a crucial victory. With Burnley already relegated and having nothing to play for, Leeds have a strong incentive to secure all three points. The odds for a Leeds victory stand at -233, making this a favored outcome at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Prediction 2: Both Teams to Score - YES

Despite Burnley's struggles, they may find the net against Leeds' defense, which has been penetrated in recent games. Both teams scoring is a viable bet, with odds at -110. This prediction accounts for Leeds' need to stay aggressive and Burnley's desire to salvage some pride.

Prediction 3: Under 2.5 Goals

Considering Burnley's poor offensive output and Leeds' recent defensive solidity, this match could be low-scoring. Betting on under 2.5 goals at odds of +120 could offer value, especially if Leeds manage to secure an early lead and focus on maintaining it without overextending themselves.

Further Predictions

Our tips

Total Goals

Under 4.5

There have been under 4.5 goals scored in 6 of Leeds United's last 6 matches.

There have been under 4.5 goals scored in 3 of Burnley FC's last 4 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Total Goals

Over 2.5

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 4 of Leeds United's last 6 matches.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 2 of Burnley FC's last 4 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Double Chance

1X

Leeds United have won or drawn 5 of their last 6 matches.

Burnley FC have drawn or lost 4 of their last 4 matches.

Top odds at bet365

Team Statistics

Leeds United - Current Form

Leeds United have shown resilience in recent matches, winning three of their last five encounters across all competitions. Although they suffered a narrow loss to Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final, their league performances have been encouraging. With 9 wins, 13 ties, and 12 losses this season, Leeds maintain a 40% win rate. Positioned 15th, they hold a six-point cushion above the relegation zone.

Burnley FC - Current Form

Burnley FC's current form has been disappointing, with no wins in their last five matches (one tie, four losses). Their relegation was confirmed after a 1-0 loss to Manchester City. With only four wins all season, Burnley have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game. Their current position reflects their challenging campaign, as they prepare for life in the Championship.

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Key Player Statistics/Momentum

Leeds United will look to Dominic Calvert-Lewin, their top scorer with 11 goals this season, to make an impact in this crucial fixture. With creative forces like Aaronson and Stach returning from injuries, Leeds will be keen to leverage their playmaking capabilities. Burnley's fight will rely on their experienced players, though the absence of key figures due to injuries poses a challenge. Leeds' home form and attacking potential make them favorites in this clash, especially with Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities.

Last Direct Match: Leeds United vs Burnley FC

The last encounter between these sides saw Burnley secure a 2-0 victory at home, adding a layer of motivation for Leeds to avenge that loss at Elland Road.

Performance Last 5 Matches

Leeds United have shown form with 3 wins, 1 tie, and 1 loss, while Burnley have struggled with 0 wins, 1 tie, and 4 losses.

Performance

Leeds United

Last games

Leeds United performance of the last 5 home matches

Victories

40%

Over 2.5

40%

Burnley FC

Last games

Burnley FC performance of the last 5 away matches

Victories

20%

Over 2.5

60%

TrustnBet Predictions Summary

Our three soccer predictions for Leeds United vs Burnley FC stem from analyzing recent performances, current form, and the stakes involved. Leeds' need for Premier League survival, coupled with Burnley's relegation, shapes our confidence in a Leeds win. Both teams may find the net, given Leeds' attacking intent and Burnley's quest for pride. Lastly, under 2.5 goals offers value, as Leeds may opt for a conservative approach once in control. These factors collectively inform our betting tips.