Creighton Bluejays @ Marquette Golden Eagles NCAAB 01/27/2026
It’s Big East, and this one has juice for bettors and hoops fans alike. On Tuesday night (9:30 p.m. ET), Creighton rolls into Milwaukee to face Marquette with both teams trending in different directions. The Bluejays have banked solid conference momentum, while the Golden Eagles are trying to steady the ship at home. If you follow the markets, this checks the classic boxes: a road favorite with better form, squaring off against a home team hoping the building can swing a tough spot.
We’ve seen Creighton win tight ones lately and Marquette fall in close calls—two patterns that shape how to approach moneyline, spread, and totals for this matchup. The numbers say Creighton’s offense travels, and Marquette’s defense has struggled to hold up for 40 minutes. That blend makes this a compelling spot to assess both the straight-up winner and how high this total can climb if pace and shot quality tilt Bluejays.
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Our betting predictions: Creighton Bluejays @ Marquette Golden Eagles
Main Pick: Totals – Over 150.5 Points
1) Totals: Over 150.5 points (projected) at around -105 with bet365. Why: Creighton’s offense is humming, and the Bluejays have been comfortable playing into space and tempo. Across conference play, Creighton is averaging roughly 82.4 points per game, and Marquette’s defense is allowing about 81.8 per game—two signals that point toward a game with sustained scoring windows. Marquette’s best chance is to push the pace at home and try to generate transition looks, which also helps the Over. Estimated hit rate: 54–56%.
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Tip 2: Creighton moneyline
2) Creighton moneyline at attractive odds with BetMGM. Why: Form and matchup point Bluejays. Creighton sits in the upper tier of the Big East table and has closed late-game scenarios better over the last two weeks. The Bluejays are carrying around a 60–63% win probability in my model. If the market posts something in the mid -150s, that’s within range for a straight-up play on the road favorite. Estimated win probability: 60–63%.
Tip 3: Spread – Creighton -3.5
3) Creighton -3.5 at around -110 with BetMGM. Why: If you prefer plus-money variance, you could correlate the spread with the moneyline projection. Creighton’s average margin trends, combined with Marquette’s late-game execution issues, suggest a solid chance the Bluejays land in that two-possession cover window. My fair number sits around -4. Estimated cover probability: 56–58%.
Team Statistics: Form and Week 8 Snapshot
Marquette Golden Eagles
- Table and record: Marquette sits 11th in the Big East, 2–8 in conference (4 points in the standings context) and 1–4 across the last five. Home form shows 2–3; they’ve been scrappier in their own building, but consistent shot-making has wavered late.
- Scoring profile: Marquette is averaging about 72.5 points per game against Big East foes, while allowing roughly 81.8 per game. The defensive end has been the bigger hurdle—too many clean looks surrendered at key moments, especially from the arc and in early-clock actions.
- Most recent result: A road loss at Butler by an 11-point margin underscored the trend—good bursts, not enough closing stretches. They have to bottle up transition defense and limit live-ball turnovers to keep this one on script.
- Momentum takeaway: The Golden Eagles have the effort; they need more efficient trips and fewer dry spells to flip close second halves. At home, that’s attainable—but it requires a defensive lift.
Creighton Bluejays
- Table and record: Creighton is in sixth place at 6–3 in the Big East, with a 3–2 mark over the last five. Road form sits 2–2—capable of traveling, and they don’t need to win pretty to get it done.
- Scoring profile: Creighton averages about 82.4 points per game in league play and allows roughly 76.9. That offense travels—spacing, ball movement, and the ability to create mismatches off the bounce are all there. Their defensive number isn’t elite, but it’s good enough when their tempo and efficiency hit.
- Most recent result: A one-point home win over Xavier showed composure. The Bluejays closed, got the late bucket they needed, and showed they can manufacture a final-possession answer.
- Momentum takeaway: The Bluejays’ balance is their edge. If they establish rhythm from three and win the glass by even a small margin, their shot volume plus efficiency becomes tough to chase.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Marquette’s Chase Ross has been the go-to scorer, and when he heats up early, the Golden Eagles’ offense flows. Ben Gold provides steady rebounding, and Nigel James Jr. drives pace and creation. Sean Jones’ ongoing absence (toe) has trimmed backcourt depth. For Creighton, Austin Swartz is in a groove, averaging strong scoring over the past 11 and delivering clutch moments, while Josh Dix brings steady two-way minutes and team-leading scoring this season. Pop Isaacs (hip) is out for the year, trimming some playmaking depth, and Josh Townley-Thomas remains sidelined. The external factors tilt to Marquette’s home environment—energy can carry them through a cold stretch—but Creighton’s recent late-game poise is the counterweight. If whistles favor drivers, Creighton’s spacing could open high-value paint touches and kick-out threes.
Last direct match
The last meeting went Creighton’s way in Omaha—an emphatic 21-point margin that reinforced the recent series edge for the Bluejays.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Marquette Golden Eagles: 1 win, 4 losses
- Creighton Bluejays: 3 wins, 2 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our three tips align with the trends. The Over 150.5 sits at the top because both teams’ scoring profiles and defensive tendencies create a path to a high-140s-to-low-150s game, and a few extra possessions or a whistle-friendly night nudges it past the number. The Creighton moneyline is next; the Bluejays’ combination of shot quality, late-game shot creation, and steadier form earns them the nod even on the road. Finally, Creighton -3.5 is the correlated play for bettors comfortable with a two-possession sweat. The “why” here is straightforward: Creighton’s per-game scoring advantage, Marquette’s defensive leakage, and a recent pattern of the Bluejays executing late. If Marquette’s home crowd sparks a more connected defensive showing, this could stay tight. But our read is that Creighton’s spacing and perimeter shot-making carry the night, making the Over and a short Creighton side the most logical paths.
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