Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars NCAAB 01/16/2026
We’ve got a Big East scrap on Friday as Creighton visits Providence for Matchday 6. From a betting lens, the profiles are pretty clear: Creighton has been more stable out of the gate (5-2 overall, 6th in the table), while Providence is searching for answers (1-5, 10th) and hasn’t found that home rhythm yet. Under head coach Kim English, the Friars are trying to speed the game up and manufacture offense; the averages say they’re producing at a fast clip per contest, but giving it back on the other end. Creighton, meanwhile, has traveled well and tends to keep its defensive floor solid across venues.
If you’re shopping the Moneyline, Totals, and Spread markets, contextual clues point toward an edge for the visitors with some potential for scoring momentum, especially if Providence leans into pace at the AMP. My projections (not an official sportsbook line) make Creighton a modest road favorite with value pockets on the total if you anticipate tempo holding. Let’s break it down and find the angles that matter before the tip.
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Our betting predictions: Creighton Bluejays @ Providence Friars
Main Pick: Totals pick – Over 151.5
Our primary tip leans on the Totals pick: Over 151.5 at -120 with Fanatics (projected 54% hit rate). Why I like it: Providence games have trended up in tempo under Kim English, and their per-game scoring profile is aggressive. Creighton’s offense travels and should find efficiency in the half-court and via secondary break. If the Friars keep pushing pace and live at the stripe, that unlocks the Over. Betting tip: Over 151.5 at -120 with Fanatics.
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Tip 2: Spread pick – Creighton -5.5
2) Spread pick: Creighton -5.5 at -125 with Fanatics (projected 55% cover). Creighton’s overall efficiency gap and steadier late-game shot diet give the Bluejays the better path to margin. Their road form has been competent, and Providence’s home form hasn’t clicked yet. Betting tip: Creighton -5.5 at -125 with Fanatics Sportsbook.
Tip 3: Moneyline pick – Creighton ML
3) Moneyline pick: Creighton ML at best price with BetMGM (estimated 65% win probability; equivalent Providence ML + price near +186, 35%). The Bluejays’ defensive baseline plus experience in close possessions nudges this into favorite territory. Betting tip: Creighton ML at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Team Statistics and form snapshot
Providence Friars (Head Coach: Kim English)
- Table/record: 10th in the Big East; 1-5 overall in conference play. Home record sits at 0-3; away mark listed at 2-1 in the provided form guide. The big story has been volatility: Providence is scoring at a healthy per-game clip but surrendering even more on average, which makes end games high leverage.
- Per-game scoring and allowed: Through six contests, Providence is averaging roughly 86.3 points per game and allowing about 90.7 per game. At home specifically, the Friars are generating around 82.3 per game and conceding about 87.7 per game. That mix suggests they can hang in shootouts but need cleaner defensive possessions, particularly at the rim and against ball reversals.
- Recent result: The Friars are coming off a home game against Villanova that slipped away in the closing minutes. The takeaway isn’t the final total—it’s that Providence’s offense can keep pace with top-half teams, but the defense needs to string together stops to close.
- Five-game form: 1-4. That tells you why they’re hunting a statement performance in front of the home crowd.
Creighton Bluejays (Head Coach: Greg McDermott)
- Table/record: 6th in the Big East at 5-2. Away form checks in at 2-1 per the form guide—important with this matchup on the road. Creighton’s profile is steadier on both ends, and the team has handled late-game scenarios with more composure of late.
- Per-game scoring and allowed: The Bluejays are averaging about 80.0 points per game while allowing roughly 72.3 per game across seven games played. On the road, the averages tighten even more favorably on defense, with their concessions per contest trending lower away from home than most teams manage.
- Recent result: Creighton is coming off a home win in overtime against Georgetown—a gritty, possession-by-possession grind that can build confidence for the next close test.
- Five-game form: 3-2. The offense has had spurts of fireworks, but the real calling card remains shot selection and defensive buy-in.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Two coaching voices frame this one: Kim English wants Providence to play with tempo and edge, while Greg McDermott leans on structure, spacing, and rim protection. Creighton’s interior deterrence and guard shooting typically travel, which helps stabilize them in hostile gyms. For Providence, the blueprint is pace, paint touches, and getting to the line to tilt efficiency. Monitor any game-day availability updates, as rotation stability matters for both backcourts. Schedule-wise, Creighton’s recent overtime outing could add a touch of fatigue, but their depth usually distributes minutes effectively. If Providence’s energy and crowd engagement spike early, expect them to press the pace and test Creighton’s transition defense; conversely, if Creighton dictates a half-court rhythm and limits live-ball turnovers, the Jays’ efficiency advantages show up late.
Last direct match: Providence Friars vs Creighton Bluejays
The most recent head-to-head went Creighton’s way on the road by a comfortable margin, with the Bluejays creating separation after halftime and closing with poise in winning time.
Performance last 5 Matches
Providence Friars: 1-4; Creighton Bluejays: 3-2.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s how we land on our three plays and why. The total angle leads the card: Providence’s average scoring environment is elevated, and Creighton’s offense typically travels, so Over 151.5 carries a slight edge (projected 54%). For the spread, Creighton -5.5 connects with the matchup fundamentals—better defensive baseline, cleaner half-court execution, and late-game reliability (55% cover projection). Finally, on the Moneyline, Creighton pairs with a 65% win projection—enough cushion to justify the favorite status in what should be a lively Big East atmosphere.
Big picture: Providence under Kim English can absolutely make this a game with pace and aggressiveness, but the more possessions we get, the more Creighton’s shot profile and rim defense tend to matter. That’s why we like Over first, Creighton against the number second, and the Jays on the Moneyline as the anchor.
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