Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines NCAAB 01/20/2026
Ann Arbor gets the Tuesday-night Big Ten spotlight as Michigan hosts Indiana in a matchup that matters for both the standings and your betting slip. Michigan sits third in the conference table at 6-1, while Indiana enters at 3-4 and ninth, aiming to flip their mid-season narrative. The Wolverines are coming off a confidence-building road result at Oregon (double-digit margin), and Indiana just stumbled at home to Iowa by a three-possession margin. That form snapshot tracks with recent trends: Michigan is 4-1 over its last five, Indiana is 2-3.
From a numbers perspective, Michigan’s conference scoring profile looks strong, averaging about 89.0 points per game in league action while allowing roughly 73.6. Indiana averages about 77.9 per conference game and concedes roughly 75.6. That blend points to Michigan’s edge in both efficiency and depth, especially at home under head coach Dusty May. My model pegs Michigan with a 66-69% win probability, while Indiana’s upset chances sit around 31-34%. Totals should hover in the mid-150s based on tempo and defensive profiles, but late-game free throws could swing it.
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Our betting predictions: Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines
Best Pick: Total Under 155.5
1) Total Under 155.5 (projected price around -118 at BetMGM; 56% probability): Michigan’s defense in league play is tracking toward upper-tier efficiency, and Indiana has shown spurts of cold shooting on the road. Using blended scoring baselines (Michigan’s offense vs Indiana’s defense; Indiana’s offense vs Michigan’s defense), the model projects around 154–158 combined. I’ll lean under because Michigan’s half-court defense and defensive glass typically suppress second-chance points, and Big Ten pace often trims possessions in these spots. Betting tip: Under 155.5 at or better than -118.
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Pick 2: Moneyline – Michigan Wolverines
2) Moneyline: Michigan Wolverines (fair price at bet365; 68% win probability): Michigan’s balance and depth, plus recent form, create a consistent home-court edge. Their last five performance trend (4-1) and one-possession win in the most recent head-to-head tilt tilt the needle their way. Betting tip: Michigan ML is playable; any shorter than -220 still has some value if you trust the matchup.
Pick 3: Spread – Michigan -6.5
3) Spread: Michigan -6.5 (standard price at -115 with bet365; 55% cover probability): My projection makes this closer to -7.5, so -6.5 carries a modest edge. Michigan’s average conference margin is notably stronger than Indiana’s, and the Wolverines’ ability to string together stops in second halves can create separation. Betting tip: Michigan -6.5 up to -115.
Team Statistics and Form Guide
Michigan Wolverines (current table position: 3rd; overall 6-1): The Wolverines’ conference scoring average sits right around 89.0 per game, and they’re allowing about 73.6, a differential that speaks to two-way control. Over their last five, they’re 4-1, including a road statement at Oregon (won by double digits). If you’re narrowing in on why Michigan wins, it’s often the balanced shot distribution and late-game defense. They’ve been steady at home, and their recent surge under Dusty May has reinforced their half-court execution. Even when the offense cools, the defense typically travels and holds up, helping preserve single-digit spreads and ML parlays.
Indiana Hoosiers (current table position: 10th; overall 3-4): Indiana averages about 77.9 per conference outing while allowing roughly 75.6. That near-even differential explains the 2-3 run over the last five. While the Hoosiers can create spurts with shot-making on the perimeter, their road profile lacks the top-end consistency to keep pace when opponents lock in defensively. They’re coming off a home stumble to Iowa by a sizeable margin, and that underscores the need for cleaner shot quality and fewer empty trips—especially in Ann Arbor, where Michigan tends to dictate tempo and possessions.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Indiana’s scoring centerpiece, Lamar Wilkerson, is in strong form, working near 20 per game on the season and pushing higher in Big Ten play. If he hits early threes, Indiana’s ceiling rises. Point guard Tayton Conerway has flashed playmaking but needs efficiency to counter Michigan’s on-ball pressure. The Hoosiers have dealt with nagging injuries (e.g., Josh Harris out, monitoring Jason Drake and Jasai Miles), which can impact depth. Michigan, meanwhile, has played with balance—multiple scorers live near double figures, and the frontcourt has produced strong rebounding efforts in recent wins. Head coach Dusty May emphasized higher standards after a mid-season stumble, and the response since has been encouraging. Motivation-wise, Indiana is hunting a résumé pop on the road; Michigan is protecting home court and a top-tier seed trajectory.
Last direct match
Michigan took the most recent meeting in a one-possession game on the road, showing poise late in a tight Big Ten setting.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Michigan: 4 wins, 1 loss — trending up, with one strong road result by double digits.
- Indiana: 2 wins, 3 losses — volatility on offense and stretches where the defense couldn’t string stops.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Best angle: Total Under 155.5. Michigan’s defensive shape, plus Big Ten pace dynamics, suggests fewer possessions and controlled shot quality. The blended projection falls in the mid-150s, and the Wolverines’ late-game composure can bleed the clock. Moneyline: Michigan. With an estimated 68% win probability, the Wolverines’ home profile and superior two-way efficiency make them the right side. – Spread: Michigan -6.5. The model leans toward the Wolverines by two-to-three possessions. Indiana’s path to covering likely requires an outlier shooting night and a turnover margin win; both are possible but not probable.
In short, our read aligns with Michigan’s steadier form and defensive ceiling. If you want a conservative approach, pair Michigan ML with the Under. If you’re comfortable with variance, Michigan -6.5 has a small but real edge.
