Indiana Hoosiers @ Purdue Boilermakers NCAAB 02/20/2026
One of the Big Ten’s bluest rivalries takes center stage on Friday night as Indiana heads to Purdue’s home floor for an 8:00 p.m. ET tip. From a betting angle, this one lines up as a classic clash of form, venue edge, and roster questions. Purdue has been the steadier team across the campaign, while Indiana’s road profile has been up‑and‑down and currently leans shaky after that rough night in Champaign. The number should reflect Purdue’s stronger efficiency base, but this is still a rivalry, and Indiana already edged the first meeting in Bloomington earlier this winter. If you’re building a Friday card, you’ll want to weigh Purdue’s home splits against Indiana’s injury clouds and reliance on a hot primary scorer. Let’s break it down.
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Our 3 betting predictions for Indiana Hoosiers @ Purdue Boilermakers
1) Moneyline: Purdue Boilermakers to Win
Purdue grades out better on the full-season numbers and, more importantly, on the home/away split. The Boilermakers are 5–2 at home and profile at roughly 81.1 points per game on their court while allowing about 75.7. Indiana’s road scoring sits around 73.3 with about 76.8 allowed, and the Hoosiers’ recent stumble at Illinois underscores their volatility away from Bloomington. Rivalry variance matters, but Purdue’s more stable shot quality and rebounding, paired with the crowd edge, tilt the baseline toward the Boilers. My modeled win probability is 66%. Tip: Purdue moneyline at best odds with bet365.
2) Spread: Purdue -6.5 (-110)
On neutral numbers, Purdue owns the stronger per-game differential (+8.2 overall) versus Indiana’s narrower +1.6. At home, the Boilers’ average margin is north of +5, while Indiana runs negative on the road. Factor in Indiana’s banged-up backcourt depth and the likelihood that Purdue controls the glass and tempo in key stretches, and a one-to-three-possession cushion feels justified. If your sportsbook is hanging -6.5 or better, I make it a modestly positive expected-value angle at standard juice, with a projected cover probability near 57%. Tip: Purdue -6.5 (playable to -7 at standard -110 with FanDuel Sportsbook).
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3) Total: Under 153.5 (-110)
Blending the most predictive splits: Purdue home scoring (~81.1) plus Indiana road scoring (~73.3) gives a composite near 154, but defensive splits land closer to ~152.5 combined. In rivalry settings, possessions can grind late, and Purdue’s ability to force half-court sequences often drags the pace into medium or slightly below. Indiana’s road offense has been inconsistent, especially if the perimeter isn’t humming early. My number sits right around 152–153, so at 153.5, the lean is under with roughly 55% confidence. Tip: Under 153.5; would still consider Under 152.5 at standard -110.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Purdue Boilermakers — Strong home profile, steady efficiency
- Record: 11–4 overall; 5–2 at home.
- Form: 4–1 in the last five, bouncing back after a recent setback.
- Scoring profile: About 79.5 points per game; allows around 71.3 per game overall.
- Home split: Roughly 81.1 points per game at home; allows about 75.7 at home.
- Table position: 5th, which matches the eye test for a top-tier Big Ten squad.
Purdue’s per-game margin (+8.2 overall) highlights a two-way edge that travels, but it’s even more trustworthy at home. They’ve leaned on size, paint touches, and a balanced guard-forward shot diet. Even when the three-ball cools, their second-chance work and foul-line pressure give them the higher floor.
Indiana Hoosiers — Competitive, but road inconsistency lingers
- Record: 8–7 overall; 3–5 on the road.
- Form: 3–2 in the last five, but coming off a tough road outing.
- Scoring profile: About 77.7 points per game; allows around 76.1 per game overall.
- Road split: Roughly 73.3 points per game away; allows about 76.8 away.
- Table position: 10th, reflecting a team still searching for consistency.
Indiana can absolutely punch up when the perimeter is clicking and their primary creator gets downhill. But away from home, the offense can stall if secondary playmaking isn’t there, and the defensive glass can wobble against bigger fronts. The margin of error tightens on the road, which matters here.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Indiana’s offensive ceiling rides heavily with Lamar Wilkerson, who’s been on a heater recently and gives the Hoosiers a legit go-to late-clock option. Conor Enright’s facilitation has been cleaner of late, but scoring output has varied; if he adds punch, IU’s half-court looks sharper. Depth has been tested by ongoing guard absences and uncertainty around Tayton Conerway. For Purdue, Trey Kaufman‑Renn has dealt with knocks earlier in the season, yet still demands attention on the block and as a screener. The Boilers’ backcourt, led by steady decision-makers, stabilizes tempo and shot quality. Rivalry energy on a Friday night can elevate variance, but Purdue’s home-court environment typically amplifies their physicality on the boards and sharpens execution late.
Last direct match: Purdue Boilermakers vs Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana edged the first meeting in Bloomington earlier this season, pulling away late in a tight two-possession game.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Purdue: 4–1 over the last five, with a recent stumble but strong overall cadence.
- Indiana: 3–2 over the last five, including a rough night on the road last time out.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card leans Purdue across the board because the underlying numbers travel, and they spike in West Lafayette. The Boilers own a sturdier per-game margin, a better home split, and a clearer late-game identity. That justifies the moneyline pick at a 66% projection (fair around -195), with playable room to about -210. On the spread, the data gap plus Indiana’s road profile supports Purdue -6.5 at roughly 57% cover probability near -110. For the total, both the split-based projection and rivalry pace dynamics nudge slightly to the Under at 153.5, with about 55% confidence around -110. Indiana’s best path is a big Wilkerson night plus better-than-average road shooting; otherwise, Purdue’s rebounding and physical half-court defense should carry the final margin and tilt the tempo just enough to keep this from turning into a full-on track meet.
