Massachusetts @ Ohio NCAA Football 11/18/2025
Tuesday night MACtion brings us to Athens, Ohio, for UMass at Ohio, and the vibes feel pretty clear. We’ve got a winless Minutemen squad heading into one of the MAC’s toughest home environments at Peden Stadium, where the Bobcats have stacked a 5-0 home mark. Ohio comes in 6-4 overall with a steady scoring profile of roughly 27.1 points per game and a defense allowing around 23.5 per game across 10 outings. UMass sits at 0-10, averaging about 10.5 points with around 37.6 allowed. That split alone paints a picture, but context matters: Ohio’s ground game has taken a real step forward, checking in around 194.7 rushing yards per game, and they’ve shown crisp red-zone finishing in recent weeks. UMass, meanwhile, has been decimated by injuries and has struggled to find consistency at quarterback or along the offensive front.
From the betting angle, totals players might lean toward points given Ohio’s run-game efficiency and UMass’s defensive issues, but there’s also a razor-sharp case for the spread with Ohio’s home form. On a Tuesday night stage with MAC standings and bowl positioning in play for the Bobcats, motivation is high. It’s CBS Sports Network, national window, and the sort of spot where Ohio has historically handled business. Let’s drill into the picks and the matchup in Ian Rapoport fashion—quick-hit intel, what I’m hearing, and how it translates to wagers you can actually use.
Think your team has the advantage? See how the oddsmakers view the matchup by checking out the NCAA Football betting odds before the game gets underway.
Our betting predictions for the match UMass @ Ohio
Main Tip: Spread – Ohio -31.5
Our primary betting prediction: Spread – Ohio -31.5 at -112 with BetMGM Sportsbook. Ohio’s home juice is undeniable, undefeated at Peden, and trending up in short-yardage and red-zone execution. UMass, on the other hand, has averaged about 10.5 a game while conceding nearly 38, and that’s a tough math problem in a road setting with limited depth. The Bobcats’ run game lets them control tempo, rack up sustained drives, and keep their defense fresh. I’m laying the number with confidence.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Who will win the match?
Our secondary prediction: Moneyline – Who will win the match? No frills here—Ohio to win outright at best odds with bet365. The Bobcats have a sizable performance edge on both lines, a healthier roster, and tangible goals on the table (bowl eligibility momentum, MAC positioning). UMass hasn’t cracked the code on offense and has battled availability issues throughout the depth chart. With Ohio’s home efficiency and a defense comfortable playing with a lead, the game script tilts toward the hosts from kickoff.
Tip 3: Game Totals – Over 51.5
Our final betting tip: Game Totals – Over 51.5 at -110 with bet365. This hinges on Ohio’s ability to carry the scoring load while UMass chips in enough to push it over. Ohio averages a tick over 27 per game and faces a defense allowing roughly 37.6. If the Bobcats get rolling on the ground early—think methodical scoring drives—and UMass finds one or two short fields or explosive plays, we’ve got a game that climbs into the mid-50s with room to spare.
Team news
- UMass: The Minutemen have been scrambling for healthy bodies. Derrieon Craig has been a bright spot, averaging 7.4 tackles per game, but they’ve seen walk-ons and scout-team guys get snaps. Earlier absences for corner Ryan Barnes and safety DD Snyder have stretched the secondary, and Zeraun Daniel has been in and out with knocks. At quarterback, AJ Hairston has averaged roughly 86.6 passing yards, with about 0.4 touchdowns and 0.4 interceptions per game, while sharing time.
- Ohio: Quarterback Parker Navarro dealt with a hand issue earlier in the semester but returned and has been steering the offense capably. He’s been a steady presence, and his legs add a layer to the run game. The Bobcats’ backfield—led by Sieh Bangura—has elevated the team’s identity with patient zone schemes and timely explosives. Health-wise, Ohio looks relatively steady entering Tuesday, and that continuity matters.
Ohio performance check
Head coach: Tim Albin. The Bobcats have gone 6-4 overall with a 2-1 mark in MAC play and a perfect 5-0 at home. Across 10 games, they’ve put up roughly 27.1 points and allowed about 23.5. Recent form shows three wins in their last five, with the most recent result a 17-13 road loss at Western Michigan—a tight game, few possessions, and a reminder that road MAC games can get weird. At home, though, Ohio has slammed the door.
The ground game averages about 194.7 yards, and we’ve seen flashpoints—like rolling 5-for-5 in the red zone versus Northern Illinois—that make you trust their ability to finish drives. Navarro’s season-long passing volume translates to a modest per-game average, but Ohio doesn’t need to air it out to be efficient. Their defense thrives when the offense controls pace, limiting negative plays and letting the pass rush hunt on obvious downs.
How is the current performance of UMass
Head coach: Don Brown. UMass is 0-10 with a 0-5 road record and averages about 10.5 points per contest while allowing roughly 37.6. The last five? All losses. The offense has struggled to sustain drives, and injuries have forced frequent lineup shuffles. The Northern Illinois loss (45-3) spotlighted issues on the line—UMass managed 65 rushing yards on 25 carries in that one—and the passing game averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt.
There are flashes—like a 47-yard burst against Akron—but explosive plays have been rare, and red-zone trips scarcer. On defense, Craig’s tackling rate stands out, and the secondary has shown life with takeaways earlier in the year, but the cumulative effect of injuries and time on the field has been a drain.
Team Statistics
- Ohio scoring profile: Around 27.1 points per game scored, 23.5 allowed across 10 games; a 6-4 record and perfect at home (5-0).
- UMass scoring profile: About 10.5 points per game scored, 37.6 allowed across 10 games; 0-10 overall and 0-5 away.
- Ohio rushing identity: Approximately 194.7 rushing yards per game; recent trend line strong with multiple backs providing balance.
- Red-zone snapshot: Ohio recently posted a spotless outing (5-for-5 with touchdowns) versus Northern Illinois, reinforcing improved short-yardage execution.
- Discipline: UMass ranks sixth in the MAC and 38th nationally in fewest penalty yards per game at about 47.0, which at least keeps them from gifting field position.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Quarterbacks: Parker Navarro (Ohio) gives a steady hand and running threat; his season line converts to a manageable per-game passing clip that fits Ohio’s game plan. For UMass, AJ Hairston’s production translates to about 86.6 passing yards and roughly 0.4 touchdowns per game, and turnovers have been a balancing act at around 0.4 picks per outing.
- Running backs: Sieh Bangura sits around 48.1 rushing yards per game by season average, but the on-field feel is that Ohio rides the hot hand—see the breakout game from Duncan Brune earlier and Bangura’s multi-score day vs. NIU. Ohio’s committee approach keeps legs fresh.
- Injuries: UMass’s availability issues are real—walk-ons and scout-team snaps aren’t just talking points; they’re game reality. Ohio appears healthier overall.
- External: Tuesday night MACtion under the lights, national TV (CBS Sports Network), and travel for UMass on short rest. Ohio is in the hunt for bowl eligibility momentum and MAC positioning. Peden Stadium has been a fortress.
Last direct match: Ohio vs UMass
No recent official head-to-head data is listed in the provided dataset. From a betting perspective, that means less direct matchup signal and more focus on current-season profiles, home/away splits, and health.
Performance last 5 matches
- Ohio: 3 wins, 2 losses. The Bobcats have stabilized their identity around the run game and timely defense, especially at home.
- UMass: 0 wins, 5 losses. Consistency and depth remain the biggest challenges, with the offense struggling to sustain drives.
Last match results: Ohio and UMass
- Ohio: 17-13 road loss at Western Michigan. Low-possession game with narrow margins—still, a reminder to value Ohio’s home/road split in projections.
- UMass: 45-3 home loss to Northern Illinois. The running game was bottled up, limited red-zone time, and too many long downs to convert.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s the bottom line, and it’s the kind of read that holds up across multiple angles. Ohio at home, with a robust run game and improved red-zone touch, versus a UMass team averaging around 10.5 points and stretched thin by injuries—this sets up for a lopsided script. We’re staking three plays: Ohio -31.5 at -110 because the trenches and home form matter, Ohio on the moneyline as the safest anchor, and Over 51.5 at -110 based on Ohio’s scoring potential and a pace that can push this into the mid-50s. If the Bobcats handle business early, we get game control, field position edges, and the kind of second-half cushion that cashes spreads and nudges the total higher.
