Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers 11/28/2025
Friday night in Los Angeles, two Western Conference brands that always move the needle take the floor at Crypto.com Arena: the Mavericks visit the Lakers. From a betting angle, this one is a classic contrast in momentum. The Lakers enter with a strong early-season profile and a crisp 5-0 run over their last five, while Dallas is trying to stabilize on the road and has gone 1-4 across its past five. Market makers tend to shade toward a confident home favorite in this spot, and the underlying numbers largely agree: the Lakers are scoring at a brisk clip at home on average, while the Mavs’ road offense has lagged.
If you’re playing moneyline, spread, or totals, recent form plus situational context matters. The Lakers, under head coach JJ Redick, have leaned into pace-and-space principles that amplify LeBron’s playmaking and their shooters, and they’ve protected home court with high-efficiency offense. Dallas, guided by Jason Kidd, still leans on Luka Dončić’s creation and Kyrie Irving’s late-clock shotmaking, but the road split, and the availability of key rotation pieces could swing edges in this matchup. Let’s break down the angles and find value.
Got your prediction? Compare it with the NBA betting odds—sometimes the gap between the two is where the value lives.
Our betting predictions for Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers
Best Bet: Game Total – Under 234.5 Total Points
For our primary betting prediction, we lean on the Game Total: Under 234.5 total points at -120 with Fanatics Sportsbook. Short explanation: Los Angeles has been explosive on average at home, but their defense has quietly tightened late in games, and Dallas’ road offense is producing several points fewer per game away from American Airlines Center. Combine that with the potential for the Lakers to dictate tempo with half-court touches for Anthony Davis if he’s active, and the Under has appeal. My projection lands closer to the low 230s. Betting tip: Under 234.5 at -120 with Fanatics.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Los Angeles Lakers ML
Moneyline: Los Angeles Lakers ML at best odds with BetMGM. Short explanation: My model gives the Lakers a 66% win probability. Dallas owns the last head-to-head in L.A., but the current trajectories diverge: the Lakers are riding a five-game winning run, and their home offensive averages are elite. Dallas’ road averages and defensive slippage make the margin for error thin if the Lakers limit live-ball turnovers. Betting tip: Lakers ML, with a fair line at BetMGM. That implies roughly a 66% edge for L.A., with Dallas around 34%.
Tip 3: Spread – Los Angeles Lakers -5.5
Spread: Lakers -5.5 at -110 with BetMGM Sportsbook. Short explanation: With Los Angeles’ home scoring average outpacing Dallas’ road output by a sizable margin, a two-possession cover is well within range if the Lakers’ defensive glass holds. The Mavs can keep this tight with three-point variance, but the baseline numbers point to L.A. clearing -5.5 more often than not. Betting tip: Lakers -5.5 at -110.
Team Statistics
Los Angeles Lakers — Western Conference form snapshot
- Record and context: The Lakers have opened the season 13-4 and are tracking as a top-4 seed in the Western Conference. Over their last five, they’re 5-0, trending upward.
- Last result momentum: They’re coming off a comfortable home win against their crosstown rival, a performance marked by strong fourth-quarter control rather than just hot shooting.
- Points per game (season average): The Lakers are averaging roughly 118.3 points per game across their schedule. At home, that jumps to about 124.0 points per game, a strong indicator of how well the offense travels to its own floor.
- Points allowed per game (season average): About 114.8 points per game allowed overall. On the road, they’ve tightened, but what matters here is how they manage the paint and defensive glass at home, where late-game execution has been sharp.
- Western Conference standing: Inside the West hierarchy, they’re in that upper tier, showing the balance of star power and shot creation you expect from a contender-level unit.
Dallas Mavericks — Western Conference form snapshot
- Record and context: Dallas sits at 5-14 and is fighting to climb out of the lower tier in the Western Conference. The recent 1-4 stretch underscores inconsistent defense and offense that stalls on the road.
- Last result momentum: The Mavericks dropped a close one on the road to Miami, a game where late-game execution and scoring droughts proved costly.
- Points per game (season average): Dallas is averaging about 109.5 points per game overall. Away from home, that dips to roughly 104.2 points per game — a meaningful split when projecting totals and spreads.
- Points allowed per game (season average): About 115.5 points per game allowed overall, with roughly 113.5 allowed in road contests. That defensive average leaves a narrow path to upsets without elite shot-making.
- Western Conference standing: In the West, they’re currently nearer the bottom, and they need improved bench contributions and rim protection to stabilize.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Lakers: Under head coach JJ Redick, LeBron James is orchestrating with pace when it’s there and control when it isn’t, while Anthony Davis’ presence changes rim protection and finishing angles. When Davis is active, the Lakers’ shot quality at the rim and their defensive rebounding elevate. Austin Reaves’ secondary playmaking gives L.A. another initiator to punish switches.
- Mavericks: Luka Dončić remains an elite on-ball creator and one of the league’s top per-game scorers. Kyrie Irving’s off-the-bounce shooting can spike short-term variance, critical for an underdog. Dallas’ rotation health matters: interior depth and defensive containment at the point of attack will be pivotal.
- External/Schedule: Dallas is on a Los Angeles swing, and road legs can influence pace choices. If the Lakers control tempo, that favors their shot profile and late-game sets.
Last direct match
Dallas took the last meeting in Los Angeles by a lopsided margin, riding hot shooting and sturdy defense. That result sets a revenge backdrop for L.A., but matchups and current form have shifted since then.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Los Angeles Lakers: 5 wins, 0 losses — trending up on both ends.
- Dallas Mavericks: 1 win, 4 losses — searching for rhythm, particularly on the road.
Before you settle on your prediction, check out our NBA picks — you might spot a matchup edge or number you hadn’t considered.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our three picks align with the numbers and the eye test. First, the Under 234.5 hinges on the Mavs’ reduced road scoring average and the Lakers’ ability to compress pace in key stretches; it’s the most compelling edge given current splits. Second, Lakers ML at fair odds reflects a 66% win probability driven by home efficiency and late-game execution under JJ Redick. Third, Lakers -5.5 leverages those same edges with the expectation that L.A. wins the bench minutes and controls the glass.
To win these bets, we’re banking on Los Angeles generating higher-quality looks in the half-court, limiting turnovers that fuel Dallas runs, and leveraging LeBron-and-AD actions to pressure the rim. For Dallas to flip this script, they’ll need a three-point surge plus strong nights from Luka and Kyrie, while shoring up second-chance points. Our models, though, tilt toward the Lakers handling business at home — steadily rather than wildly — which supports the Under and a comfortable L.A. margin.
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