Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers 01/02/2026
Two Western Conference teams with very different vibes right now meet under the lights at crypto.com Arena on Friday, 01/02/2026. The Lakers, paced by head coach JJ Redick, have stacked wins early and sit in the West’s top tier, while Memphis has been scrapping around the play-in neighborhood with more uneven form. From a betting lens, this one checks all the key boxes: moneyline, spread, and totals. Los Angeles has had the better aggregate form and a favorable recent head-to-head trend, but Memphis’ pace and perimeter punch always create volatility for totals bettors. We’ll frame this with clear percentages and fair American odds, then drill into matchup dynamics, form, and who’s more likely to control tempo.
For context: the Lakers’ recent run has been choppy in their last five, and Memphis also just dropped a tight overtime outing. Still, the Lakers’ broader sample suggests stronger two-way balance than the Grizzlies right now, and their home floor typically nudges the edge toward L.A. Let’s get to the picks.
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Our betting predictions: Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
Main Tip: Over/Under – Over 234.5
For our primary pick, we lean on the Over/Under: Over 234.5 (at -120 with FanDuel). Rationale: Both clubs’ season scoring and allowed profiles point to a high-possession, high-efficiency night. Los Angeles is averaging roughly the high 110s per game, and Memphis is just under that threshold. With Memphis pushing pace and the Lakers getting to the line and living in the paint, our model makes the Over a slight value. Probability: 54% to clear this total. Betting tip: Take the Over 234.5 at anything better than -120 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Lakers ML
2) Moneyline: Lakers ML at best odds with bet365. Rationale: The Lakers’ overall record is stronger, they’re at home, and they’ve claimed four of the last five head-to-heads. Even with recent inconsistency, their median game script is steadier, and they have multiple shot-creators late. Probability: 59% win chance, fair price at bet365. Betting tip: Lakers moneyline down to an attractive odds is acceptable.
Tip 3: Spread – Lakers -4.0
3) Spread: Lakers -4.0 at -108 with bet365. Rationale: Our number lands L.A. by about 4–5 on a neutral-adjusted basis, and the home bump tips it slightly past two possessions. Memphis’ road form has been middling; if the Lakers control the defensive glass, they can cover late with free throws and half-court execution. Probability: 52% to cover. Betting tip: Lakers -4 at -108 or better is playable.
Team Statistics: Where the Lakers’ edge shows and where Memphis can punch back
Los Angeles Lakers (Western Conference)
- Overall form and table context: The Lakers enter at 20–11 and occupy a top-eight spot in the West. They’ve been solid at home, with an 8–6 mark in the building. Recent form has cooled (1–4 last five), but the longer arc says this team knows how to win tight games in their arena.
- Points per game: Using season totals, the Lakers are averaging roughly 116.8 points per game while allowing about 117.3. That slight negative differential owes a lot to pace and a recent skid; earlier clusters included multiple comfortable wins.
- Last result: L.A. is coming off a tough home outing against Detroit, falling by a wide margin. The defense allowed a higher-than-normal efficiency, particularly in transition and second-chance situations.
- What it means for bettors: The variance comes from three-point volume and turnover runs. When the Lakers keep turnovers in check and leverage their interior game, they get to their scoring baseline and tend to close. At home, they’re positioned to dictate matchups and rotation patterns that protect leads in the second half.
Memphis Grizzlies (Western Conference)
- Overall form and table context: Memphis sits at 15–18, hovering outside the automatic playoff spots out West but in the mix for play-in jockeying. Their road record is 8–9—competitive, but not a clear edge away from home.
- Points per game: The Grizzlies are averaging about 115.9 points per game and allowing around 116.5. That profile reflects a fast pace and a willingness to live with some defensive trade-offs to keep the tempo high.
- Last result: Memphis dropped a heartbreaker in overtime to Philadelphia by one possession. They did plenty to win, but couldn’t get the final set executed cleanly.
- What it means for bettors: Memphis’ volatility often shows on the road. If the threes fall early, they can ride runs and force opponents to play faster than they want. If the Lakers slow the game in the mid-fourth, Memphis must create cleaner half-court looks to stay within a single possession.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Coaching: Lakers head coach JJ Redick has leaned into a balanced approach—early touches for the bigs, staggered creator minutes, and lineups that prioritize spacing around star actions. That typically stabilizes L.A.’s late-game offense.
- Stars: Anthony Davis’ two-way presence remains the Lakers’ shape-shifter—rim protection plus high-efficiency finishing. LeBron James’ on-ball creation raises their offensive floor, particularly late in close games. For Memphis, the perimeter shot diet and rim pressure drive outcomes; when their primary ball-handler collapses the defense, kick-outs unlock high-value shots.
- Tempo and whistles: Memphis’ pace profiles toward an Over-friendly script, especially if L.A. runs with them. The Lakers’ ability to get downhill and draw whistles can also buoy the Over. – Availability watch: Final statuses can swing the spread by a point or two—monitor the injury report and minutes expectations on game day.
Last direct match: Los Angeles Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies
The Lakers took the most recent meeting on the road by two possessions, closing strong late. That recent trend tilts toward L.A. in clutch sequences.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Lakers: 1–4 in their last five
- Grizzlies: 2–3 in their last five
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our model leans Lakers at home on the moneyline thanks to steadier late-game offense and a favorable head-to-head trend. The spread is a thinner edge—still playable at -4 given our projection, but sensitive to injury news and pace swings. The most interesting angle is the total: both teams’ season scoring and allowance averages point to a game with enough possessions and free throws to clear a mid-230s number. That’s why our rotation today puts the Over first, Lakers ML second, and Lakers -4 third.
- Totals: Over 234.5 (54%)—pace plus whistle risk supports the Over.
- Moneyline: Lakers ML (59%)—home edge and late-game creation.
- Spread: Lakers -4 (52%)—projected margin lands slightly above two possessions.
Keep an eye on the final injury report and confirm starting lineups. If Los Angeles maintains its core rotation and controls the glass, the Lakers’ moneyline and a modest spread become more attractive. If Memphis signals full-strength guard play, prioritize the Over and consider trimming spread exposure.
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