Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans 02/20/2026
It’s a Friday night tilt in New Orleans as the Pelicans host the Bucks at Smoothie King Center (Feb 20, 8:00 PM ET). For bettors, this matchup is all about balancing recent momentum with underlying numbers. Milwaukee has won four of its last five and just handled its most recent opponent comfortably on the road, while New Orleans has been streaky, coming off a home loss but battling more respectably of late. The market’s leaning toward the home side on the moneyline, yet totals bettors will notice both defenses have been giving up plenty of points on average—especially in these exact home/away splits. The pricing suggests a modest edge to the Pelicans and a modest lean toward points. Let’s break it down and find the smartest angles.
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Our 3 betting predictions for Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans
1) Over 224.5 points (Total)
New Orleans home games have played to a high average: the Pels are putting up roughly 117.2 points per home contest and allowing about 120.7 there. Milwaukee’s road profile also leans to production, with the Bucks averaging about 108.0 away while conceding roughly 113.5. Blend those tendencies, and you’re looking at an expectation that lands near the mid-to-high 220s. Given the defensive slippage we’ve seen on both sides, plus the Pelicans’ tempo bump at home and Milwaukee’s recent uptick in efficiency, the Over has a solid path. Market price at -110 with BetMGM Sportsbook implies around a 52–53% hit rate; our read is in that same neighborhood at roughly 53%, with plausible upside if either team’s three-point variance swings hot. Tip: Over 224.5.
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2) Moneyline — Tip: Pelicans ML (approx. 61% win chance)
The home team has the situational edges: friendlier rims, better energy, and a defense that—while leaky—still creates enough events at home to tilt possessions. Using market baselines, best odds at FanDuel imply about a 61% win probability for New Orleans, while Milwaukee’s +135 sits around 43% implied on the other side (vig in play). Our number lands close to the market, in the 60–62% range for the Pelicans to get it done. With the Bucks’ road scoring average lagging behind their home output and their road defense surrendering a healthy clip, the small-but-clear favorite status for the Pels makes sense. Tip: Pelicans moneyline.
3) Spread — Tip: Pelicans -3.5 (-115)
Translating the moneyline edge to the spread puts New Orleans in the one-to-two-possession range. The Pelicans’ home scoring profile versus Milwaukee’s road allowance suggests they can find about the mid-110s, and if the Bucks don’t hit their road ceiling, a 4–6 point margin is firmly in play. The price at -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook implies roughly 53–54%, and we’re in that same band given the matchup: the Pels’ on-ball pressure at home combined with Milwaukee’s road shooting dips can produce just enough separation late. Tip: Pelicans -3.5.
Team Statistics and Form Snapshot
New Orleans Pelicans — Home offense can pop, defense still a concern
New Orleans enters with a 15–41 record (win rate around 27%). The recent form has been mixed (2–3 over the last five), and they’re coming off a home loss to Miami by a double-digit margin. The Pelicans’ season scoring profile sits near 114.6 points per game, but they’ve allowed about 120.4 across the campaign. At Smoothie King Center, that home split trends even more offense-heavy: roughly 117.2 points scored and about 120.7 allowed per home outing. That’s why totals have remained a talking point for New Orleans, and it’s also why they can be dangerous as a home underdog or small favorite—there’s variance built into their style. In the Western Conference context, they’ve been trying to claw back momentum despite the record, and when their wings shoot it well, the Pels can trade buckets with almost anyone.
- Overall offensive average: ~114.6 points per game
- Overall defensive average allowed: ~120.4 points per game
- Home average: ~117.2 scored, ~120.7 allowed
- Form: 2–3 in the last five
Milwaukee Bucks — Better recent form, but road splits flag caution
Milwaukee sits at 23–30 (about a 43% win rate) and has picked up steam lately with a 4–1 run across the last five, including a comfortable road win at Oklahoma City. Season-to-date, the Bucks average roughly 111.8 points per game and allow about 115.2. On the road, the offense drops to about 108.0 while the defense gives up about 113.5—numbers that help explain why the market tilts to the Pelicans. In an Eastern Conference picture that’s still fluid in the middle tiers, this recent surge matters, but their away shooting fluctuations remain the big swing factor. When Milwaukee’s perimeter pieces get going, they can tilt a game fast; when they’re cold, that road deficit can snowball.
- Overall offensive average: ~111.8 points per game
- Overall defensive average allowed: ~115.2 points per game
- Road average: ~108.0 scored, ~113.5 allowed
- Form: 4–1 in the last five
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Keep an eye on availability and minute management. If New Orleans has its core intact, Zion Williamson’s recent stretch around the low-20s per game efficiently gives the Pelicans a pressure point in the paint, while a hot wing—Saddiq Bey has been on a scoring uptick—can stretch Milwaukee’s help rotations. For the Bucks, health and shooting variance are the story; if their perimeter group replicates recent efficiency, they can offset the road drop-off. Situationally, New Orleans at home has pushed pace and shot more confidently, while Milwaukee’s second-unit scoring can swing outcomes if they maintain rhythm. Any late injury news or rest will matter, but on pregame numbers, the Pelicans’ home-scoring profile and the Bucks’ road defense point us toward the Over and a modest New Orleans edge.
Last direct match — New Orleans Pelicans vs Milwaukee Bucks
Their most recent head-to-head was a high-intensity overtime game in Milwaukee, where the Bucks edged it late. Historically, Milwaukee has taken four of the last five meetings.
Performance last 5 Matches
New Orleans: 2–3. Milwaukee: 4–1.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re landing on three angles that align with both the data and the market: Over 224.5, Pelicans moneyline, and Pelicans -3.5. The Over -110 makes sense because New Orleans home games tend to run hot, and Milwaukee’s road defense gives up a steady clip—our blended projection sits in the mid-to-high 220s. On the moneyline, Pelicans ML equates to roughly a 61% chance; we have the home side in the 60–62% band thanks to strong home scoring averages and the Bucks’ away dips. For the spread, Pelicans -3.5 -115 mirrors that modest edge, and our projection points toward a one-to-two-possession cushion that can stretch late with free throws and transition chances. In short, we trust New Orleans’ at-home scoring profile to carry the night and push this total past the mid-220s, with enough matchup leverage to cash both ML and the short spread.
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