New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks 02/27/2026
Friday night at Fiserv Forum brings a matchup with real playoff implications for both sides: New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks, Feb 27, 2026, 8:00. From a betting angle, it’s a clash of momentum versus resilience. The Knicks have been one of the East’s steadier outfits this season, while Milwaukee is fighting to keep its Play-In hopes alive—and doing it without Giannis Antetokounmpo. New York’s overall profile leans efficient and organized, whereas the Bucks’ recent surge has been fueled by role players stepping into bigger usage. With New York sitting comfortably in the East’s top tier and Milwaukee in must-win mode, this one sets up as a fascinating test of depth, defense, and late-game execution. Let’s break down how that translates into moneyline, spread, and total angles—and where the value sits.
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Our 3 betting predictions for New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Best Pick: Total – Under 226.5 Points
With Giannis sidelined, Milwaukee’s offensive ceiling dips and its style trends more toward halfcourt. The Knicks under Tom Thibodeau already prefer a slower, physical game, and they’ve been one of the East’s more reliable defenses. New York’s average scoring output sits around the high teens per game, and they allow roughly the low hundreds; Milwaukee averages in the low hundreds and concedes the mid-hundreds. Those blended averages suggest a number in the mid-220s, but when you factor in the Bucks’ Giannis-off splits and New York’s road composure, the ceiling trims a bit. Our model leans towards a 55% probability. If you’re seeing a total around 226.5, the lean is to the Under at -122 with bet365.
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Pick 2: Moneyline – Knicks to Win (Edge to New York’s stability)
New York’s two-way consistency and closing reliability give them the edge against a shorthanded Milwaukee group. The Knicks have taken four of the last five in the series, and they’re the higher-seeded Eastern team for a reason. Even with some recent bumps, New York’s overall form remains strong. Our projection makes the Knicks around 59% to win straight up, which aligns to about -144 on a fair-moneyline basis. Given Milwaukee’s desperation factor and home floor, this won’t be a walkover, but the safer side is the Knicks ML. Betting tip: Knicks Moneyline to anchor parlays or as a standalone play if the market hangs anything better than -150.
Pick 3: Spread – Knicks -3 (play to -4)
Milwaukee has strung together wins lately, but New York’s defense, shot creation from Jalen Brunson, and rim protection with a healthy Mitchell Robinson tilt this toward road favorite territory. Without Giannis, the Bucks often rely on jump shooting and secondary creation, which can wobble against disciplined half-court defense. Our number makes Knicks -3 a fair stance with about a 54% cover probability. Recommendation: Knicks -3 at -110 with BetMGM, and we’d still consider it at -3.5 or -4 if the juice is friendly.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Milwaukee Bucks: Battling for the Play-In, trending up but still shorthanded
Milwaukee sits in the Eastern Conference’s lower half (11th in the East), carrying a 25–31 overall record (0.446 win rate). The Bucks have been better of late, going 4–1 in their last five, including a nail-biter victory over Cleveland earlier this week. But the macro picture without Giannis is telling: they have struggled in games he’s missed this season. Offensively, Milwaukee averages roughly 112.3 points per game while allowing about 115.4, a negative differential that often shows up late in fourth quarters when shot creation tightens. Home court helps a bit at Fiserv Forum, but the primary question is whether the Bucks can generate enough efficient halfcourt offense with Giannis out. Recent contributions from Kevin Porter Jr. and Kyle Kuzma have been real, though their night-to-night variance is higher than a Giannis-led attack.
New York Knicks: Defense-first identity with top-3 East cred
New York is firmly in the Eastern Conference’s top tier (3rd in the East) with a 37–22 record (0.627 win rate). Over the last five, they’re 3–2, and they’re coming off a road setback at Cleveland. On the full-season averages, the Knicks put up around 117.1 points per game and allow about 111.7—one of the better two-way profiles in the conference. Jalen Brunson has been the engine, with February form that includes efficient scoring and strong playmaking. The return of Mitchell Robinson adds a major boost on the glass and at the rim, helping stabilize New York’s interior defense and second-chance prevention. While the Knicks have been managing bodies across back-to-backs, their depth and structure usually travel well, especially against teams missing a primary star.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains out (calf), a swing factor that lowers Milwaukee’s offensive ceiling and rim protection. The Bucks have leaned on Kevin Porter Jr.’s shot creation and Kyle Kuzma’s frontcourt scoring in his absence. For New York, Jalen Brunson’s steady play (roughly mid-20s in points lately with strong assist totals) anchors their late-game offense, while Josh Hart’s all-around impact and OG Anunoby’s two-way presence support a defense-first template. Mitchell Robinson is available and back in the mix, which matters against a Milwaukee team that must manufacture points in the paint without Giannis. Venue note: Fiserv Forum is a quality home court, but New York’s disciplined halfcourt style often neutralizes pace.
Last direct match: Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks
The Knicks took the November meeting by single digits at home, closing stronger down the stretch despite a big individual performance from Milwaukee’s star. New York’s half-court defense and execution carried the final minutes.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Milwaukee Bucks: 4–1 run, including a narrow home win over Cleveland.
- New York Knicks: 3–2, most recently a road loss at Cleveland.
- Series trend (recent years): New York has captured four of the last five.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card stacks up with three angles: Under, Knicks ML, and Knicks -3. The Under leans on tempo and personnel—Giannis outshifts Milwaukee into more halfcourt basketball, and New York’s defensive baseline is strong enough to keep this from turning into a track meet. On the moneyline, the Knicks’ 59% win probability reflects the difference in two-way stability and late-game creation. For the spread, we project New York by two possessions in a typical script—defensive stops, second-chance control via Robinson, and Brunson’s shotmaking in clutch time—making Knicks -3 at around -110 a reasonable play.
In short: the more this game slows down, the more it favors New York. Milwaukee’s recent surge and home-court edge keep them alive, but without Giannis, the margin for error is thin. We’re siding with the Knicks to grind out a road win and keep the total under the mid-220s.
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