Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals 12/14/2025
Week 15 in the AFC North brings the kind of divisional tension bettors love: Baltimore (6-7) traveling to Paycor Stadium to face Cincinnati (4-9) on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The market tells a story right away. Baltimore has been priced as the road favorite, while the Bengals as underdogs. The total is posted at 52.5, juiced to the Under at -110, and the spread is Bengals +2.5. That’s the clue trail. On recent form, Cincinnati is 1-4 across the last five, Baltimore is 3-2, and the last outing for each was a loss: the Bengals fell 34-39 in Buffalo, while the Ravens came up short 22-27 at home to Pittsburgh.
The angle here starts with averages, not totals. Cincinnati is scoring roughly 24.2 points per game and allowing about 31.8. Baltimore sits at about 23.9 points per game and allows 24.6. That math puts the blended projection closer to the high 40s than the low 50s, with familiar divisional tendencies that can grind games down in December. With Zac Taylor calling it for the home side and John Harbaugh bringing a disciplined road outfit, expect smart scripts and measured tempo early. The matchup—and the numbers—set up value if you’re selective.
Explore updated NFL betting odds and get a clearer sense of where the numbers might actually be heading.
Our betting predictions: Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Best Pick: Totals – Under 52.5 Points
1) Under 52.5 points at -122 with bet365 Sportsbook. Projection: 55% to cash, thanks to per-game scoring averages that aggregate near 48–49 points. Divisional rematches in December tend to trend methodical, and both staffs are comfortable squeezing possessions. Cincinnati’s home scoring average (31.3) versus its home points allowed (34.5) looks scary for an Over, but those splits have been inflated by game state and late chases. Baltimore’s overall profile—about 23.9 for, 24.6 against—pulls the mean back toward the high 40s. With a slightly elevated posted number, the Under is the first ticket I want in my pocket.
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Pick 2: Moneyline – Bengals to Win
Projection: 47% win chance for Cincinnati (+115 fair at DraftKings). That’s slight value on the home side. Zac Taylor has a strong early script tendency, and in a second look at Baltimore, the Bengals’ offensive plan should prioritize rhythm throws and a steady ground commitment to balance the pass. The Ravens’ road scoring clip is solid (27.6 per game), but Cincinnati’s urgency in front of a home crowd—and the insider-level familiarity with Baltimore’s fronts—makes this a live dog. The price is playable.
Pick 3: Spread – Bengals +2.5
Projection: 54% to cover (fair about -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook). If you want a little protection built in, the +2.5 offers a cushion in what profiles as a one-score game most of the time. Baltimore’s average margin is basically a coin flip, while Cincinnati’s variance has been about late swings. Getting points at home in the AFC North is a position I’m comfortable with when my moneyline probability is in the mid-to-high 40s.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Cincinnati Bengals overview (home team): The Bengals are 4-9 and 2-4 at home, with an overall scoring average of about 24.2 points per game and 31.8 allowed. At Paycor, it’s been higher variance—Cincinnati averages roughly 31.3 points scored at home, while surrendering about 34.5. That paints the picture of a team that can surge early and still find itself in shootout mode late, particularly if pass protection stretches thin and the defense is on the field too long. Over the last five, it’s been 1-4, with that 34-39 setback in Buffalo underscoring both the explosive upside and the defensive strain. Scheme-wise under Zac Taylor, the Bengals are best when the quick game is humming, and the ground game keeps them ahead of the sticks. On defense, Cincinnati has shown bursts of ball-hawking and rally tackling, but too many drives have extended into scoring territory. Keeping a lid on Baltimore’s quarterback-powered run-pass blends is the week’s top assignment.
Baltimore Ravens overview (away team):
Baltimore is 6-7, 3-2 on the road, and averaging roughly 23.9 points for and 24.6 against per game. Away from home, the offense ticks up to about 27.6 points per game with the defense allowing roughly 23.8, which tracks with John Harbaugh’s knack for travel-ready football—cleaner operation, fewer penalties, and fewer wasted possessions. The Ravens come in 3-2 across their last five, most recently taking a tight loss to Pittsburgh. Their formula remains multidimensional: quarterback-led designed runs, play-action shot plays, and a defense that mixes pressure looks with tight-zone eyes. If Baltimore controls early downs and keeps down-and-distance manageable, it can tilt the field and lean on its special teams to close the gap. The challenge in this spot is navigating a game script that might become condensed—Cincinnati will try to force Baltimore to win outside the numbers and tighten red-zone windows.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
From the week’s reporting: Tee Higgins’ status has trended uncertain, and if he’s limited or out, that skews coverage toward Ja’Marr Chase, inviting bracket looks. For Baltimore, reports this week noted Isaiah Likely and Brent Urban among the concerns, while the secondary had a couple of names on the injury line. If Baltimore’s depth on the interior defensive line is stretched, Zac Taylor can lean on early-zone runs to set up play-action. December football at Paycor typically means crisp footing but colder temps—energy management matters, especially for skill players after contact. Translation: a pace game with short passing could define the early going, and whichever side owns third-and-medium will own the night.
Last direct match: Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
The last head-to-head finished 32-14 to Cincinnati on the road, a reminder the Bengals can seize this matchup when their script connects. That said, over the last five meetings, Baltimore holds a 4-1 edge, so be careful over-weighting one result.
Performance last 5 Matches
Cincinnati: 1 win, 4 losses. Baltimore: 3 wins, 2 losses. Each comes in off a loss—Bengals fell 34-39 at Buffalo; Ravens lost 22-27 to Pittsburgh.
Check out today’s NFL expert picks right here and see, at a glance, which matchups analysts are highlighting.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s the read, straight and to the point. Our numbers and the matchup lean Under 52.5 at -110, with per-game scoring averages pointing to a total in the high 40s and divisional familiarity likely compressing pace. That’s our strongest angle. On the side, Bengals moneyline at +115 grades out as thin value with a 47% win projection—Zac Taylor’s scripted starts, home energy, and the potential for a balanced plan give Cincinnati a live shot. If you want the cushion, Bengals +2.5 at -115 is a sensible companion, as this projects to a one-score game most of the time. For context, the market’s shade toward Baltimore at -135 implies about 57–58%—we make this tighter, with Baltimore around 53% and Cincinnati around 47%, hence the value on the home dog.
Bottom line: Under 52.5, Bengals ML sprinkles, and Bengals +2.5 if you prefer spread protection. The math checks out, the matchup aligns with our projection, and the price points make sense in a divisional Week 15 at Paycor.
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