Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos 01/17/2026
Two teams riding recent momentum, two very different paths to get here. The Broncos earned rest and home-field advantage in the AFC Divisional Round at altitude, while the Bills arrive after a gritty road win that showcased Josh Allen’s dual-threat chaos in all the best ways. From a betting angle, we’re weighing that Denver 8-1 home mark (an 88.9% win rate) against Buffalo’s 4-1 surge over its last five.
Sean Payton’s defense has been a problem for offenses down the stretch, allowing an average of 18.3 points per game and just 278 yards per game, with a pass rush humming at roughly four sacks per game. The Bills have their own push-button offense when Allen gets rolling, and they just posted 27 on the road in January against Jacksonville. The market context has hovered around a tight spread, which fits the matchup: Denver’s defense and altitude against Buffalo’s top-end QB play and late-season grit. Let’s break it down and find the edges.
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Our betting predictions: Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Main Pick: Total: Under 44.5 Points
1) Total Under (featured): Under 44.5 points. Why lead with the total? Denver’s defense is set up to squeeze possessions, and Sean Payton has leaned into a controlled offensive approach that limits negative plays. They allowed just 18.3 points per game this season, and the pass rush (about four sacks per game) can force Allen into drive-killing spots. Buffalo’s offense is dangerous, but in altitude and against this front, you’re asking for sustained efficiency in a lower-paced setting. Our estimate: 58% chance the game finishes Under, fair odds at -138 at Fanatics. Lean Under 44.5 or better; even 44 holds value if your price is reasonable.
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Pick 2: Moneyline – Denver Broncos
2) Moneyline: Denver Broncos. Fresh off a bye and 8-1 at home, Denver’s defense and pass protection profile set a high floor. They’ve allowed roughly 1.4 sacks per game—one of the league’s best marks—and that clean pocket should keep the chains moving even if it’s not fireworks on every drive. Our model puts this at 56% win probability for Denver, fair moneyline at bet365. Buffalo sits roughly 44% in our view. With the altitude boost and a healthy defensive core, the Broncos on the moneyline is a sensible play.
Pick 3: Spread – Broncos -1.5
3) Spread: Broncos -1.5. If you like the moneyline, you likely like the spread in a short range. Denver’s defensive structure and special teams in altitude often flip field position in their favor. Buffalo is 4-1 over its last five (80% win rate) and can absolutely steal this, but Denver’s balance gives them multiple paths to a 3- to 6-point margin. Estimated 54% cover probability at -1.5, translating to fair odds near -115 at bet365. I’d play -1.5 at standard juice; if it ticks to -2.5, reduce stake.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Denver Broncos (Home) — Sean Payton has this group peaking the way he likes: defense first, steady offense, and smart situational football. They’re 8-1 at home (an 88.9% win rate), and they used the first-round bye to get healthier and sharper. Over their final eight, Denver averaged 22 points per game, a modest but efficient clip that pairs with a defense yielding only 18.3 points per game and 278 yards per game. The pass rush has been relentless, averaging about four sacks per outing, and the offensive line has allowed around 1.4 sacks per game—one of the league’s stingiest rates. That combo of pressure on defense and protection on offense keeps games in their comfort zone.
In terms of touchdowns, Denver’s balance favors opportunistic red-zone chances over volume; the pace and field-position game often delivers two to three offensive touchdowns per outing without needing track-meet tempo. Tackling has been sure, and the edge duo plus interior push closes escape lanes to limit explosive rushing. Interception production comes from tight coverage and pressure-induced errors; expect slot matchups to be a focal point given how opponents try to avoid Denver’s edge threats. In the AFC West, the Broncos earned the conference’s top seed—clear evidence they won their division race and set the playoff bracket through Mile High.
Buffalo Bills (Away) — Sean McDermott’s group arrives in rhythm: 4-1 over the last five (80% win rate), including the 27-24 road win at Jacksonville. The Bills’ scoring profile skews a touch higher than Denver’s, but the altitude and pass rush they’re facing will test every yard. With Josh Allen, Buffalo leans on a dual-threat approach—passing to the intermediate areas, leveraging tight ends and slots, and unlocking Allen’s legs in situational downs. Touchdown production often blends one to two passing scores with a live rushing threat from Allen and the backs, rather than pure dropback volume.
The defense is physical and opportunistic, with tackling volume spread across a deep rotation; however, injuries in the secondary have required adjustments. They’ll need well-timed takeaways rather than a steady diet of three-and-outs to tilt this. In the AFC East, Buffalo’s resume put them into the postseason as a road challenger in this round; their formula for advancing is a balanced attack that keeps Denver’s front guessing and steals a possession with a timely interception or forced fumble.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Josh Allen’s form is the swing variable. He just authored a playoff road win with efficient passing and red-zone rushing, but Denver’s pass rush (about four sacks per game) and altitude can throttle explosives.
- Sean Payton’s Broncos benefit from the bye week; historically, he’s excelled with extra prep. Denver went 8-1 at home, where the thin air magnifies pass rush and special teams.
- On injuries, Buffalo’s secondary and WR room have moving parts, while Denver expects “most everyone back.” If Ed Oliver contributes meaningful snaps, Buffalo’s interior push gets a lift.
- Weather and altitude suggest a slightly slower offensive pace and potential late-game fatigue for the road team, nudging game script toward the Under.
Last direct match
Last meeting noted: a 31-7 home win for Buffalo in the postseason the year prior. Denver also snagged a 24-22 upset in the 2023 regular season at Buffalo on Monday night.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Denver Broncos: 4 wins, 1 loss
- Buffalo Bills: 4 wins, 1 loss
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re leaning on three pillars. First, the Under: Denver’s defense and altitude tend to compress games, and Buffalo’s best path is controlled drives, not constant explosives. Our estimated 58% Under probability makes the total our featured look. Second, the Broncos’ moneyline at an estimated 56% win chance: 8-1 at home, a rested roster, and Sean Payton’s script discipline matter in January. Third, Broncos -1.5: if you trust the ML edge, the short spread is a logical extension with a 54% cover projection. We respect Buffalo’s ceiling with Josh Allen—if he goes nuclear, all bets are off—but the most likely flow is Denver’s defensive pressure dictating pace, a field-position game that trims total points, and enough Broncos efficiency to clear a one-score margin. That’s why our card stacks as Under, Broncos ML, and Broncos -1.5.
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