Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots 12/14/2025
Two teams that know each other way too well, two coaching staffs that love to play chess, and one December tilt in Foxborough that feels playoff-adjacent. That’s Bills at Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette. The market has been inching toward a coin flip: New England sits near the favorite on the moneyline, while Buffalo is the underdog. That spread hovering around a point, and a hook tells you all you need to know—oddsmakers see this as razor-thin.
From a betting lens, the recent form matters. Mike Vrabel’s Patriots have stacked five straight wins, tightening up on defense and playing balanced, situational football. Buffalo’s been more volatile but still dangerous, winning three of its last five with multiple late-game sprints. If you prefer numbers over vibes, the per-game scoring profile is sneaky: New England averages about 27.0 points per game and allows 18.5, while Buffalo averages roughly 28.9 and allows 22.5. Divisional familiarity often compresses totals and boosts the value of the home team in one-score scripts. That’s the lane I’m driving in for this matchup.
I’m hearing plenty of confidence out of Foxborough. Vrabel’s tone this week: lean into physicality, win early downs, and make Buffalo earn every yard. The Bills, under Sean McDermott, will counter with pace and vertical answers from Josh Allen—who’s been sharp lately—but New England’s home splits (allowing about 17.0 per game in Foxborough) are a real thing. Expect a tight, possession-driven game with situational football deciding it late.
Explore updated New England Patriots odds today and get a clearer sense of where the market might actually be leaning.
Our betting predictions for Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Top Play: Totals – Under 50.5 Points
Primary Pick: Under 50.5 points at -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook. Projected hit rate: 58%. This is a divisional game with two defenses that force long fields, and a Patriots unit that has allowed just about 17.0 per game at home. Buffalo’s offense has pop, but Allen’s best explosions typically come at home; on the road this year, the Bills have averaged about 23.7 points. New England’s offense under Vrabel has leaned on controlled tempo in big spots. With both staffs familiar with the opponent’s tendencies, red-zone field goals over touchdowns show up more often. Betting tip: Under 50.5 -115 at BetMGM.
Take a moment to explore the BetMGM Bonus Code breakdown and get a clear overview of what’s included.
Tip 2: Spread – Patriots +1.5
Spread: Patriots +1.5 at -115 with bet365 Sportsbook. Projected cover probability: 56%. New England is 5-2 at home and has won five straight overall. Buffalo is 3-3 on the road and tends to come back to the pack in hostile environments. Add in the Pats’ recent trend of covering in this series, and the home-side hook becomes meaningful in what profiles as a one-score finish. Betting tip: Patriots +1.5 -115 at bet365.
Tip 3: Moneyline – New England Patriots
Moneyline: Patriots at best odds (bet365 Sportsbook). Projected win probability: 52%. We project New England 52% and Buffalo 48% in a field-position fight. The market shows Buffalo around -110 at Bet365; that implies a slightly stronger lean toward the Bills than our model shows. With the Pats’ home defensive averages and late-game composure the last month, we’ll lean to the slight plus-EV side at near even money. Betting tip: Patriots -105 at bet365.
Team Statistics: New England’s surge, Buffalo’s road test
New England Patriots (home)
- Record: 11-2 overall, 5-2 at home, 6-0 away. Win percentage: .846.
- Last result: 33-15 home win vs. New York Giants.
- Scoring profile (averages, not totals): About 27.0 points per game; 18.5 allowed. In Foxborough specifically, New England is averaging roughly 26.4 points scored and allowing about 17.0. That home split matters when we handicap the under and the spread.
- Current form: Five straight wins. The defense is playing on schedule, tackling soundly, and closing drive windows in the low red zone. New England’s pass coverage has tightened, and the front is leveraging true two-gap discipline against the run, forcing second-and-long and third-and-long. That stress creates interception chances and suppresses explosive plays.
- Coaching: Mike Vrabel has brought a buttoned-up, punch-first identity back to Foxborough. In high-leverage spots (two-minute, end-of-half), New England has shown better situational awareness during the win streak, a key signal in one-score games.
Buffalo Bills (away)
- Record: 9-4 overall, 5-2 at home, 3-3 away. Win percentage: .692.
- Last result: 39-34 home win vs. Cincinnati Bengals.
- Scoring profile (averages, not totals): About 28.9 points per game; 22.5 allowed. On the road, Buffalo averages about 23.7 points and gives up roughly 17.2. That defense travels; the offense, while still dangerous, can be a bit more methodical outside Orchard Park.
- Current form: Three wins in the last five. Buffalo can still tilt the field quickly—especially off-script with Josh Allen—but there’s been more week-to-week variance compared to the Patriots’ recent stretch.
- Coaching: Sean McDermott’s Bills are comfortable in these AFC East rock fights, and they’ll prioritize keeping Allen clean and the run game efficient enough to avoid obvious passing downs. The matchup pressure point will be Allen versus New England’s disguised coverage and post-snap rotations.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Josh Allen has been efficient of late: over his last three, he’s averaged about 251.7 passing yards per game with roughly 1.7 passing touchdowns per outing, pairing that with a 108.8 passer rating.
- Drake Maye has stacked four straight games of at least 270 passing yards, including 282 and two scores last time out; trending up in command and rhythm throws.
- Injury watch: For Buffalo, LB Terrel Bernard (quad) ruled out; S Taylor Rapp, S Damar Hamlin, DB Cam Lewis, and WR Curtis Samuel were limited late in the week, with Samuel expected to be questionable. For New England, out: C Ben Brown, CB Christian Gonzalez, S Jabrill Peppers, WR Ja’Lynn Polk. Several Patriots are listed as questionable, including S Kyle Dugger and TE Hunter Henry.
- Weather: Early read has no major issues at Gillette.
- Market angles: NBC Sports Bet leaned Patriots against the number and the Under, mirroring our projections in a divisional, game-plan-heavy matchup.
Last direct match
New England took the most recent meeting 23-20 on the road. Another three-point margin would surprise no one.
Performance last 5 Matches
- New England Patriots: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Buffalo Bills: 3 wins, 2 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s how we arrived at our three-call card. First, the Under 50.5 at -115: divisional familiarity, New England’s home defensive average around 17.0 allowed, and Buffalo’s modest road scoring average collectively nudge this toward a possession game with field goals featuring. We make it 58% to cash value at this price.
Second, Patriots +1.5 at -115: the hook matters in a one-score script. With New England 5-2 at home, five straight wins overall, and Buffalo at 3-3 on the road, our model bumps the Pats to a 56% cover rate. If you like the Under, you should generally like the home dog in the same game profile.
Third, Patriots -105 moneyline: we project a 52% win chance. The Bills are priced near -110 at times; we show a slight edge the other way thanks to New England’s recent defensive performance and Vrabel’s situational edge in late-game sequences.
Bottom line: Divisional, physical, and closer than the helmets suggest. We trust the Under most, the home spread second, and the moneyline last—but all three point to a Patriots-friendly finish at Foxborough.
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