Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos 10/26/2025
We’ve got a late-window headline-grabber in Denver: Dallas at Denver, altitude, pressure, and plenty of fireworks on the board. If you’re sizing up this one from a betting angle, here’s where the matchup gets interesting. Through seven games, Denver has been steady at home, winning all three in front of the Mile High crowd and holding visitors to an average of 15.7 points at Empower Field. On the other side, Dallas has traveled four times and is scoring 24.5 per road outing while allowing 26.8 away from Arlington. That split—Denver’s home defense versus Dallas’ road volatility—sits at the heart of this handicap.
Season averages sharpen the picture. The Broncos have produced 23.3 points per game while giving up 18.1, a tidy +5.1 differential. Dallas brings the volume: 31.7 scored per game, 29.4 conceded, which is explosive but also messy. At a glance, that sets up a classic style clash—Denver’s structured defense and situational discipline against a Cowboys group that wants to push pace and trade shots.
Layer in the state of play: Denver under Sean Payton has been reliable in leverage moments, leaning on a rush-and-cover plan that generates pressure and forces offenses off schedule. Dallas, guided by Brian Schottenheimer this season, is searching for the right balance with key pieces moving in and out. With late-October altitude, pass rush on one side, and quick-strike skill talent on the other, this one shapes as a compelling read across the moneyline, spread, and totals boards.
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Our betting predictions for the match Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Main Tip: Game Totals Over 47.5 Points
Our primary betting prediction: Game Totals Over 47.5 points at -110 with BetMGM Sportsbook. If this turns into the script many expect—Dallas pressing for chunk plays while Denver counters with opportunistic shot plays and efficient red-zone trips—the total gets plenty of bites. Cowboys games are averaging roughly 61 combined points when you stack their scoring and conceding averages. Denver’s overall pace is more modest, but its home offense averages 27.0 while the defense typically gives up 15.7. Blend Dallas’ road numbers (24.5 scored, 26.8 allowed), and the path to 48 looks very realistic. The Over is live at -110 with BetMGM.
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Tip 2: Moneyline — Denver Broncos
Our secondary prediction: Moneyline — Denver Broncos at best odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Altitude, pass rush, and situational defense make Denver a tough road assignment. The Broncos have protected home turf, and their recent form suggests they can dictate terms late. Dallas’ road splits have been leaky, especially in second halves, where Denver has thrived this season. Head-to-head momentum is also with the Broncos, and with the market offering a manageable entry point at FanDuel Sportsbook, the home side sets up as the steadier moneyline choice at best odds.
Tip 3: Spread — Denver Broncos -4.5
Our final betting tip: Spread — Denver Broncos -4.5 at -115 with FanDuel Sportsbook. If you’re comfortable laying points, the case is clear: Denver’s average home margin sits in the double digits, while Dallas posts a negative scoring margin on the road. The Broncos’ pressure package should create shorter fields and tilt the hidden yardage. Combine that with the Cowboys’ susceptibility to allowing drives to extend, and a one-score win with cover potential feels within reach. FanDuel Sportsbook lists this -4.5 at -115, and it’s a logical extension of the moneyline stance.
Team news
- – Denver has been humming in their building under Sean Payton, with the defensive front setting the tone and the complementary offense taking care of business.
- – Dallas gets a big boost with CeeDee Lamb in the mix, but the season-long arc has required adjustments, including the shift under Brian Schottenheimer and navigating injuries at premium spots.
Denver Broncos performance check
Sean Payton’s Broncos are building a profile that travels—but is especially potent at home. Denver is averaging 27.0 points per game at home while allowing just 15.7, a sturdy, repeatable formula. The defense’s calling card is pressure, and it shows on late downs and in the red zone, where Denver has consistently tightened up. The pass rush has been relentless enough to tilt games without requiring high-risk blitz rates; that allows coverage to hold shells, bait throws, and rally to the ball.
On offense, Denver has emphasized efficiency—staying on schedule with a steady run rate and selective deep shots. That balance plays in altitude; by the fourth quarter, defenses tire, and Denver has cashed. In recent outings, they’ve shown the ability to open the script with measured drives, then accelerate into explosive stretch plays once they’ve diagnosed tendencies. At 5-2 with a perfect home record to this point, the Broncos are executing the blueprint Payton wants.
How is the current performance of the Dallas Cowboys
Brian Schottenheimer’s Cowboys bring a high-ceiling offense that can score in bunches. Dallas averages 31.7 points per game and leans on quick-strike concepts outside the numbers when they’re rolling. The challenge: keeping the defense steady. Opponents are putting up 29.4 per game against Dallas, and that figure climbs to 26.8 when the Cowboys hit the road. That’s where things get precarious—explosive plays on offense can be neutralized if the defense can’t string stops.
With Lamb back, spacing and matchup stress improve immediately for Dallas. The Cowboys can move him around to isolate leverage, especially on intermediate crossers and slot fades. The question is whether pass protection and the run game can keep the offense on schedule in a building where Denver’s front thrives. If Dallas has to chase long yardage, it invites the Broncos’ rush into the game and compresses windows downfield.
Team Statistics
- – Broncos, season averages: 23.3 points scored, 18.1 allowed; home splits: 27.0 scored, 15.7 allowed. That’s a positive home differential north of +10 per game.
- – Cowboys, season averages: 31.7 points scored, 29.4 allowed; road splits: 24.5 scored, 26.8 allowed. That’s a slight negative away from home.
Efficiency indicators:
- Denver at home has been positive in net yards per play, a sign they’re winning early downs and avoiding giveaways that flip momentum.
- Dallas’ overall pace pushes totals up; their games tend to open up in the second and third quarters, boosting the cumulative scoring profile.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- – Key playmakers: CeeDee Lamb’s return jumps the Cowboys’ explosive rate on early downs. For Denver, the backfield and a controlled passing script complement a pass rush that generates a high pressure percentage.
- – Momentum: Denver’s last five show a 4-1 run, closing games with poise. Dallas is 2-2 across their recent four, swinging between big wins and tough spots.
- – Altitude: The fourth quarter at Mile High often belongs to the home team. Denver’s conditioning and rotation along the defensive front are real edges.
- – Situational angles: Denver has recently covered numbers with a blend of pass rush and red-zone execution. Dallas’ road defense has allowed opponents to settle into rhythm drives, which may keep the Broncos ahead of the chains.
Last direct match: Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys
The most recent head-to-head meeting in Denver ended 17-7 for the Broncos. Over the last five matchups between these franchises, Denver has taken all five. That’s not a predictive lock, but it underscores the stylistic edge Denver often carves out at home—physical on defense, efficient enough on offense to control tempo.
Performance over the last 5 matches
- – Denver Broncos: 4 wins, 1 loss. The defense has been the tone-setter, and the offense has been opportunistic in leverage situations.
- – Dallas Cowboys: 2 wins, 2 losses in their most recent stretch provided a pattern of boom-or-bust spurts depending on protection and turnover margin.
Last match results Denver Broncos and the Dallas Cowboys
- – Denver Broncos 33-32 vs. New York Giants: A one-point thriller that highlighted Denver’s resilience and fourth-quarter playmaking.
- – Dallas Cowboys 44-22 vs. Washington Commanders: Dallas rode explosive offense and timely stops to a convincing win, reminding everyone how high the ceiling is when the key skill pieces click.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s the clean read. Denver at home is a different animal—disciplined defense, targeted shots on offense, and the conditioning edge in the fourth. Dallas can absolutely score, but their road splits invite volatility, especially against a rush that can disrupt timing. That’s why our three angles align: Over 47.5 at -110 taps into Dallas’ scoring pace and Denver’s late-game production; Broncos moneyline reflects the home edge and matchup stability; Broncos -4.5 at -115 is the logical companion for bettors comfortable laying points. Manage your risk, shop your lines, and remember: bankroll discipline is just as important as the read.
