Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers 10/26/2025
Sunday Night Football in late October? Yes, please. Green Bay rolls into Acrisure Stadium for a primetime test against a Pittsburgh team that’s been reshaped by an offensive jolt and remains a pain to face at home. From a betting perspective, this one has layers. The Packers have been the more balanced side so far, averaging about 26.3 points per game while allowing roughly 20.8, and they’ve flashed big-play potential on the road. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has settled in at about 25.0 points per game and 23.3 allowed. The Steelers are getting healthier, and under Mike Tomlin, they’re still tough in their own building, giving up about 20.3 points per home game while scoring just over 21.3.
Green Bay’s 4-1-1 start keeps them right in the NFC North chase under Matt LaFleur. Pittsburgh’s 4-2 keeps them squarely in the AFC North mix, where every week feels like a playoff preview. Remember, the NFL is split into two conferences—the AFC and the NFC—each with four divisions. Division winners and three wild cards per conference make the postseason, and from there it’s single elimination to the Super Bowl. In that context, this one matters. The Packers haven’t won in Pittsburgh since 1970, and the recent head-to-head leans towards the Steelers. The market says Green Bay is favored by 3.5—making Pittsburgh the home underdog. Add cool, 59-degree fall weather and NBC’s primetime lights, and it’s a classic Sunday-night setup where a turnover or two could swing bets and bragging rights.
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Our betting predictions for the match Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Our approach: identify the value in a short home underdog, acknowledge Green Bay’s consistency, and read the totals through pace and red-zone lens. Here’s how we’re playing it.
Tip 1: Spread – Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
Our primary betting prediction — Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 at -115 with Caesars Sportsbook. This is a classic Tomlin home spot with a defense that compresses the field and an offense that has opened up vertically. Pittsburgh’s allowing just about 20.3 points per game at home, and Green Bay’s offense—while dynamic—has shown volatility away from Lambeau. Getting the field goal and the hook in a lower-variance game has value. Even if the Packers sneak out a late win, the +3.5 keeps the Steelers inside the number. The pick: Steelers +3.5 at -115.
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Tip 2: Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers to Win
Our second prediction — Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers to win at best odds (bet365 Sportsbook). Green Bay’s overall profile is strong, but Pittsburgh’s recent offensive uptick and situational health make the plus money tempting. Under the lights, with a pass rush that can tilt drives and a quarterback comfortable pushing the ball deep, the Steelers have a real shot to control field position and tempo. If you prefer the road favorite, Green Bay, but our lean is to the plus number at home. The pick: Steelers ML.
Tip 3: Total: Over 43.5 Points
Our final betting tip — Total: Over 43.5 points at -110 with bet365. Both offenses can layer explosive plays, and both teams have special-teamers capable of flipping short fields. The Packers are averaging about 26.3 points per game; the Steelers about 25.0. Even accounting for Pittsburgh’s slightly tighter home defenses, a mid-40s total is reachable if either side connects on a couple of deep shots or converts red-zone trips. The pick: Over 43.5 at -110.
Team news
- – Green Bay midweek: Dontayvion Wicks (calf) sat early in the week; Lukas Van Ness (foot) and Brandon McManus (quad) also rested to start. Josh Jacobs (calf), Christian Watson (knee), Devonte Wyatt (knee), Xavier McKinney (ankle/knee), and multiple linemen were limited—monitor their Friday status but expect several to go. Jacobs has been playing through the tag and producing at a high rate.
- – Pittsburgh midweek: Center Zach Frazier (calf) was limited, with optimism around WR Calvin Austin III returning. T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward took standard veteran rest days.
Pittsburgh Steelers performance check
Mike Tomlin’s team is 4-2 and trending up on offense with Russell Wilson pushing the ball vertically. Since Wilson took the reins, Pittsburgh’s scoring clip has jumped to around 31.5 points per game over that stretch, a stark improvement from the roughly 20.6 they were pacing earlier in the season. Season-wide, they sit at 25.0 points per game and allow 23.3. At home specifically, the Steelers average about 21.3 points scored and 20.3 points allowed—a profile that often breeds three-point games and live underdog value.
The pass game is leaning on deep rates—Wilson’s attempts of 20-plus air yards sit around 17.6% of throws, near the top tier—and that forces safeties into tough choices. Combine that with a pass rush that changes protection rules and shortens third downs, and you get a team that can win situational football. Pittsburgh’s last outing, a 31-33 road loss in Cincinnati, stung, but the offense again showed the juice to trade scores. Expect a sharper script at home, where Tomlin typically controls tempo and situational aggressiveness.
How is the current performance of the Green Bay Packers
Matt LaFleur’s Packers are 4-1-1, and the efficiency shows. They’re putting up about 26.3 points per game while giving up 20.8, and the road splits are eye-catching: about 38.5 per game scored and 38.0 allowed in two away games. That’s a high-variance profile built on explosive plays and sudden swings, which makes them dangerous but also keeps opponents alive for covers in the fourth quarter.
Personnel-wise, Josh Jacobs has been a consistent engine. If you look at last season’s pace, he averaged roughly 78.2 rushing yards per game and just under one rushing touchdown per game, with about 98.3 total yards per game across 17 starts. Jayden Reed’s 2024 usage translated to around 3.2 catches and 50.4 yards per game, a nice chain-mover complement. On defense, Xavier McKinney averaged about 0.47 interceptions per game last season—a real ballhawk rate—and remains a chess piece against deep shots.
Team Statistics
- – Steelers overall: 25.0 points per game scored; 23.3 allowed.
- – Steelers at home: 21.3 scored; 20.3 allowed.
- – Packers overall: 26.3 points per game scored; 20.8 allowed.
- – Packers on the road: 38.5 scored; 38.0 allowed.
- – Recent head-to-head in Pittsburgh: Steelers won the last meeting 23-19 (one-score margins have been common in this series).
- – Market: Green Bay favored by 3.5; Steelers catching points at home; total 43.5.
These averages point toward a game that lives on high-leverage downs. Green Bay’s road profile inflates variance; Pittsburgh’s home profile compresses it. That’s why the spread and the over both make sense—if Green Bay’s explosive plays show up, points rise; if Pittsburgh’s defense tightens in the red zone, the +3.5 shines.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- – Russell Wilson’s deep-ball rate (~17.6% of attempts at 20+ yards) stresses corner depth and safety angles. If protection holds, it creates quick-strike potential that can flip scripts.
- – Josh Jacobs has been playing through a calf issue but is still producing, averaging roughly 2.0 touchdowns per game over his last three appearances—exactly the sort of short-yardage finisher that breaks unders.
- – Xavier McKinney’s turnover rate (~0.47 interceptions per game last season) could matter against a quarterback willing to test safeties.
- – Health tilt: Pittsburgh is cleaner on the report, while Green Bay has several starters and key contributors in limited mode.
- – Weather: around 59 degrees—crisp but not prohibitive—favors a balanced offensive plan and late-game kicking.
- – Coaching: Mike Tomlin typically plays closer, field-position games at home; Matt LaFleur’s motion and spacing concepts travel well and can produce quick scores.
Last direct match: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers
Last time out, Pittsburgh protected home turf in a 23-19 result. That margin sits right in the Tomlin-at-home zone—tight, physical, decided late. Expect another one-score script to be in play, making lines like +3.5 extremely relevant in the final possession.
Performance last 5 matches
- – Pittsburgh Steelers: 3 wins, 2 losses. They’ve collected enough tape showing the offense is ascending while the defense remains opportunistic.
- – Green Bay Packers: 3 wins, 1 loss in their last five noted results. Efficiency on both sides has been the calling card, aided by explosive spurts.
Last match results Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers
- – Steelers: 31-33 road loss vs. Bengals. The offense kept pace; the defense allowed chunk plays they’ll look to clean up at home.
- – Packers: 27-23 road win vs. Cardinals. Green Bay closed a tight one on the road—another sign their explosiveness can travel.
Wondering who the experts are backing? Check out our latest NFL picks and see where the value lies this week.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Three bets, one consistent story. We like Pittsburgh +3.5 at -115 because Tomlin’s home profile, a healthier roster, and a pass rush that can steal possessions point to a late, tight game. On the moneyline, the plus price is live with Wilson pushing vertically and the Steelers historically tough at home in prime time—if you want the favorite, the Packers, but our lean is the home side. And for the total, Over 43.5 at -110 fits the matchup: Green Bay’s road volatility meets Pittsburgh’s deep-ball aggression in ideal fall conditions. That’s a cocktail for 44+ points with multiple paths to get there.
