Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts 10/05/2025
Week 5 in the NFL drops a sneaky-interesting matchup in Indy: the Las Vegas Raiders head to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. From a betting perspective, it’s a familiar setup—the hotter home team trying to keep momentum against a squad still searching for rhythm. The Raiders limp in after a road loss to Chicago, a defeat compounded by the injury to left tackle Kolton Miller on the final drive, leaving his status uncertain. Indianapolis isn’t without concerns either: wideout Alec Pierce remains in concussion protocol, corner Kenny Moore II is managing an Achilles issue, and running back Tyler Goodson is questionable with a groin injury.
Even so, the Colts have opened 3–0 with a perfect 2–0 mark at home, built on a balanced identity that travels well and thrives indoors. Through four games, they’re averaging 25.8 points per game and allowing 14.0, with that home scoring rate spiking to 31.0 per contest in the dome. That’s the kind of efficiency and stability bettors like when laying points. Las Vegas, by contrast, sits 1–2 overall and 1–1 away, averaging 17.7 points while conceding 24.7. On the road, the defense has bent further, giving up 27.0 per outing—dangerous when facing a Colts attack in rhythm.
Form tips the scales too: Indy is 4–1 across its last five, while the Raiders have stumbled to 1–4. The last head-to-head in this building was tight—23–20 to Indianapolis—but this current Colts group looks cleaner, faster, and more stable, giving them every chance to assert themselves again at home.
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Our betting predictions for the match Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts
Main Tip: Spread – Indianapolis Colts -6.5
Our primary betting prediction – Spread: Colts -6.5 (best odds -115 at DraftKings). This is the best that fits both form and matchup. The Colts are unbeaten and averaging 31.0 at home while allowing just 18.0 there. The Raiders are yielding 27.0 per game on the road, and their offense has yet to show a consistent gear to trade scores if Indy gets rolling. In a controlled environment with crowd noise supporting the pass rush and tempo, Indianapolis looks built to win by a touchdown or more. Recommendation: Colts -6.5 at -115.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Who will win the match
If you prefer the safer side, Indy on the moneyline is the straightforward play. With a 3-0 start and a 2-0 home mark, the Colts’ floor is high, especially given their per-game edge on both sides of the ball. Best current pricing shows Indianapolis at best odds at bet365. If you’re combining parlays or just want a no-frills anchor, the Colts ML checks the boxes. Recommendation: Colts moneyline.
Tip 3: Game Totals Over/Under
Our final betting tip – Game Totals Over/Under. The blended averages point toward a solid mid-40s pace (Colts 25.8 + Raiders 17.7 = about 43.5), while home/away splits push that closer to the high 40s (both teams’ home/away totals average out near 49). Indoors, with Indy’s offense comfortably efficient and the Raiders capable of contributing to the scoreboard when chasing, the Over has appeal if the number lands around 46.5–47.5. Recommendation: Over 46.5 (at standard pricing near -110) if you can catch the number before it climbs.
Team news
Both teams enter with plenty on the line. The Colts, guided by head coach Shane Steichen, have developed a clean approach that marries tempo with physicality. Indoors, they’re leaning into rhythm passing and timely runs that keep the chains turning. The Raiders, under head coach Antonio Pierce, bring an edge on defense and a willingness to attack in spots, but they’ve struggled to sustain it for four quarters. Keep an eye on injury updates later in the week—both staffs have shown they’ll tailor game plans to personnel, and that can shift prop value late.
Indianapolis Colts performance check
Steichen’s group has the kind of split you want to back. Average scoring: 25.8 per game overall, 31.0 at home. Average allowed: 14.0 overall, 18.0 at home. That’s a clean +13.0 margin in their own building across two games. The recent run (4 wins in the last 5 across all competitions) points to a team executing situational football—protecting the ball, cashing red-zone chances, and playing fast on turf. The most recent result—20-27, an away loss to the Rams—was a stumble, but one that came on the road against a team that can scheme you into mismatches. Back home, Indy’s defense is set up to get pressure without over-committing and to force third-and-long, which has been key to keeping points allowed low. If they keep their average pace—roughly mid-20s scoring with a sturdy defensive base—this is a favorable spot.
How is the current performance of the Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are 1-2 and have been scrappy on the road, splitting 1-1, but the averages tell the story: 22.0 points scored away, 27.0 allowed. Across all games, that shakes out to 17.7 scored and 24.7 surrendered per game. They’ve been close—last time out, a 24-25 home loss to Chicago—and that shows resolve. But on the road, sustained drives have been an issue, and the defense has had to live on timely stops rather than consistent suppression. The challenge here is pace. Indoors against a clean Indy script, Las Vegas needs to get off the field on third down and generate at least one game-swinging takeaway. If they can’t force Indianapolis off schedule, the math leans against them late.
Statistics
- – Last direct match: Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders ended 23-20 in Indy’s favor in their most recent head-to-head at Lucas Oil Stadium.
- – Performance last 5 matches (all competitions): Colts 4 wins, 1 loss; Raiders 1 win, 4 losses.
- – Last match results: Colts lost 20-27 away to the Los Angeles Rams; Raiders lost 24-25 at home to the Chicago Bears.
- – Colts scoring and defense: 25.8 points per game scored; 14.0 allowed. At home: 31.0 scored; 18.0 allowed.
- – Raiders scoring and defense: 17.7 points per game scored; 24.7 allowed. On the road: 22.0 scored; 27.0 allowed.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s how it shapes up. Indianapolis is the side with form, a strong home profile, and the more stable weekly output. That makes the spread our primary angle: Colts -6.5 at -115 is the best blend of value and probability. For the moneyline, if you want the safer play or a parlay anchor, Indianapolis is justified by its per-game scoring margin and home consistency. Finally, the total leans Over if you find 46.5—Indy’s home games and Vegas’ road splits both point toward a game that climbs into the high 40s. That three-leg approach gives you a graded portfolio: a confident spread position, a conservative ML anchor, and a totals angle with indoor variance working in your favor.
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