New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins 09/14/2025

If you’re looking for an early-season game to watch, this AFC East matchup stands out. It’s Week 2 in the South Florida heat, and both teams are coming off 0-1 starts, though their losses were very different. Miami struggled on the road in Indianapolis, scoring just 8 points and giving up 33, with issues on the offensive line and in the secondary. Keeping Tua Tagovailoa protected will be key to getting Tyreek Hill and either Tank Bigsby or Devin Achane involved. New England lost at home, but the Patriots’ numbers—13 points scored, 20 allowed—show a defense that could take advantage of Miami’s weak secondary, while their offense still needs to finish drives.

The Dolphins have had the upper hand lately, winning four of the last five games against New England, including a 34-15 win at home last time. Divisional games are usually close, and the odds reflect that: Miami is a slight favorite, New England is priced as an underdog, and the spread is just +1.5. With James Daniels and Storm Duck out and Darren Waller likely missing, Miami’s ability to protect and adjust will be challenged. New England, with a healthy roster, can use a balanced offense to test Miami’s thin line. This game could come down to coaching, key moments, and who performs best in the red zone.

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Our betting predictions for the match New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Tip 1: Totals – Under 43.5 Points

Our primary betting prediction — Totals (Under 43.5, best price -110 at FanDuel): This shapes up like classic AFC East tempo: physical, methodical, and a little sweaty in that Miami humidity. The Dolphins averaged 8.0 points in Week 1 after stalling early and often, while the Patriots allowed 20.0 and kept things in front for most of the afternoon. Divisional familiarity plus early-season timing is a strong Under combo. Our pick: Under 43.5 at -110 with FanDuel Sportsbook, expecting longer drives, field position, and just enough third-down stops.

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Tip 2: Spread – New England Patriots +1.5

Our prediction — Spread (Patriots +1.5, best price -110 at FanDuel): New England’s defense tends to travel, and through one game, they’ve allowed an average of 20.0—competent enough to keep this within a field goal. Miami’s offense is built on timing and speed, but after averaging only 8.0 in the opener, they’re still searching for a groove. With Mike Vrabel leaning on situational solidity, the +1.5 gives you cover in a one-point game. Our pick: Patriots +1.5 at -110 with FanDuel.

Tip 3: Moneyline – NE Patriots to Win

Our final betting tip — Moneyline (Patriots at BetMGM Sportsbook): Miami’s recent head-to-head edge is real, and you can absolutely understand a case for the home side. But in a coin-flip divisional spot, the plus-money tag on New England tips it. The Patriots averaged more points in Week 1 (13.0) and allowed fewer (20.0) than Miami; with a defense-first blueprint and careful game management, New England can edge this late. Our pick: Patriots moneyline.

Team news

Both teams are chasing their first win, and both coaching staffs will be under the microscope. September in Miami is its own opponent; rotations and hydration matter. The Dolphins aim to steady their offense at home, while the Patriots look to double down on defensive consistency and cleaner finishing in the red zone. Expect personnel groupings to be fluid as both sides hunt matchups on the perimeter and in the slot.

Miami Dolphins performance check

Head coach Mike McDaniel knows the mission: hit rhythm, hit timing, and hit the gas at home. Through one game, Miami’s averages sit at 8.0 points scored and 33.0 allowed—numbers that will not stand as the identity in this building. The last outing, an 8-33 road loss to Indianapolis, never let the Dolphins crank tempo. In Week 2, look for scripted openings designed to re-establish quick-game confidence and create space after the catch.

Defensively, that 33.0 allowed average paints a picture of a unit that struggled to get off the field. This week, emphasis shifts to tackling in space and generating at least a couple of game-changing moments—pressures that force quick throws, a tipped pass that turns into a takeaway, or a special teams spark that flips field position. The home field should help; crowd noise can aid the pass rush, and communication settles down with familiar surroundings.

It’s still early, and Miami has enough speed and creativity to change the angle of this conversation quickly. But for bettors, the Week 1 sample suggests patience: the Dolphins need a cleaner start, more sustained drives, and sharper red zone execution to justify the favorite price against a New England defense that generally plays disciplined ball. The upside? McDaniel’s offense usually self-corrects fast at home.

How is the current performance of the New England Patriots

Under head coach Mike Vrabel, New England’s profile looks like what you’d expect: competitive on defense, opportunistic when it counts, and comfortable in a lower-scoring game state. The Week 1 result—a 13-20 home loss to the Raiders—left the Patriots with per-game averages of 13.0 points scored and 20.0 allowed. That defensive number travels, and it’s the backbone of our angle in Miami.

What needs to improve? Finishing. Sustained drives that stall for field goals won’t cut it against Miami’s explosive potential. Expect a balanced script designed to control tempo, shorten the game, and use quick passes to mitigate the Dolphins’ speed on the edge. Ball security and situational football—two-minute management, third-and-medium conversion—are the pressure points. If New England wins those, the plus-money price on the moneyline looks live for all four quarters.

Special teams often matter in this rivalry. Pinning Miami deep, squeezing hidden yards, and flipping momentum with one big return or a key coverage tackle can swing a tight spread. Add in the early-season heat factor and a defense that averaged 20.0 allowed in Week 1, and the Patriots have a blueprint that keeps this within a kick—and possibly better.

Statistics

– Last direct meeting: Miami handled business at home in the most recent matchup, 34-15, reinforcing the Dolphins’ recent rivalry edge. That single-game snapshot points to Miami’s ability to jump on New England early at Hard Rock Stadium, but this is a new season, new coordinators, and an entirely fresh script.

• Head-to-head last five meetings: Dolphins 4 wins, Patriots 1 win. The trend leans Miami, but note that several of those decisions have hinged on a couple of plays and game-state swings. In divisional matchups, small edges feel big.
• Performance last 5 matches: Miami 2 wins, 2 losses; New England 3 wins, 2 losses. The Patriots’ recent form is slightly stronger, and their defense-first approach tends to keep variance down.
• Last match results: Miami fell 8-33 on the road to Indianapolis, averaging 8.0 points scored and 33.0 allowed through one game. New England lost 13-20 at home to Las Vegas, averaging 13.0 points scored and 20.0 allowed. Both teams are 0-1, with Miami sitting 32nd and New England 27th in the early standings.
• Home/Away notes: Miami hasn’t played at home yet (0-0), and Hard Rock Stadium has historically given them a lift. New England hasn’t gone on the road yet (0-0), but a defense averaging 20.0 allowed is built to travel.

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TrustnBet Final Thoughts

We’re threading this one through three angles. First, under 43.5 plays to early-season offense, divisional familiarity, and two defenses that can dictate tempo for long stretches. Second, Patriots +1.5 reflects a possession game where New England’s structure and situational poise keep it inside a field goal. Third, Patriots moneyline taps the value side in a tight matchup—if this tilts on a final series, plus money is where we want to be. If you prefer Miami’s roster talent and recent head-to-head edge, the home side is defendable, but our numbers and matchup read lean New England and the Under in a muggy, grind-it-out afternoon.