New York Jets @ New England Patriots 11/13/2025
Week 11, Thursday night under the lights in Foxborough—this AFC East rivalry always hits a different gear. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium, and the market is telling a pretty clear story: the Patriots are rolling, the Jets are still searching for rhythm. New England comes in with the steadier profile, winning consistently and leaning on a defense that’s tightened up at home. Through 10 games, the Pats have averaged 26.5 points per game while allowing just 19.2, and they’ve been virtually the same team in Foxborough, putting up 25.0 points per game and conceding 18.0. The Jets, for their part, have shown flashes away from home—29.0 points per game on the road—but the other side of the coin is a defense giving up 31.3 in those spots. That’s how you wind up in tight finishes and heartbreakers, like the last head-to-head, which ended 25-22 for New England.
Form matters in November, and New England has strung together five straight wins across all competitions in the lead-up, while the Jets have gone 2-3 in their last five. That doesn’t decide anything on its own, but it does color how we look at the moneyline, the spread, and the total. With the Patriots favored and the number sitting double digits on the spread and mid-40s for the total, this cap comes down to whether New England’s defense keeps it boring and business-like, or whether the Jets can turn this into a track meet the way some of their road games have trended.
The Pats are gearing up for another big season — check out the latest New England Patriots betting odds and see how they stack up before kickoff.
Our betting predictions for the match New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Main Tip: Spread – New England Patriots -10.5
Spread — New England Patriots -10.5 (Odds: -110 at Fanatics Sportsbook). Our prediction: Laying the points with New England is a bet on their consistency at home and a defense that’s been quietly efficient in Foxborough, allowing just 18.0 per game in their building. The Jets’ road scoring can pop, but the defense giving up 31.3 away is where this number makes sense. Factor in New England’s five-game heater and better situational execution, and we’ll play the Pats to cover the -10.5 at -110.
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Tip 2: Moneyline — New England Patriots to Win
Moneyline — New England Patriots to win (Odds: best at BetMGM). Our betting tip: Sometimes it’s not complicated. New England’s per-game differential (+7.3 across the season) stacks well against a Jets side that has been outscored by 5.1 per game and has struggled to close on the road. Add in the recent head-to-head edge (including the 25-22 result) and a defense that travels across all game scripts, and the Patriots on the moneyline at BetMGM looks like the solid anchor for parlays or conservative singles.
Tip 3: Game Total Points — Under 45.5
Total Points — Under 45.5 (Odds: -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook). Our betting prediction: On a short week with a defense-first home team and an opponent that still swings between explosive and mistake-prone, the Under has appeal. The Pats’ defense has held firm at home (18.0 allowed per game), and their offense is more methodical than flashy in Foxborough. If New England dictates tempo, possessions shorten, and red-zone trips come at a premium. We’ll ride Under 45.5 at -115 given the defensive profile and division familiarity.
Team news
Short weeks, narrow preparation, and tend to help the side with the cleaner operation on both lines. New England has been the steadier unit lately, particularly on defense and special teams. The Jets, despite some punch on the road offensively, have to show they can protect the ball and protect their quarterback for four quarters in a tough environment. Keep an eye on late-week statuses and any wind or weather patterns typical of mid-November nights in Foxborough—gusts can shave the top off the passing game and nudge totals lower.
New England Patriots performance check
Mike Vrabel’s group has been thriving on structure and defense. Through 10 games, the Patriots average 26.5 points per game and allow 19.2, a sturdy profile that shows up even more starkly at home: 25.0 scored and 18.0 allowed per game in Foxborough. The Patriots are 3-2 at home and have won five in a row overall, including a 28-23 road result against Tampa Bay last time out. That blend—solid scoring pace, dependable defense—fits Vrabel’s DNA: win the line of scrimmage, win situational downs, and don’t give away possessions. Their recent form also hints at better red-zone reps and cleaner operation under pressure. With a short turnaround, those traits become premium currency.
How is the current performance of the New York Jets
Aaron Glenn’s Jets have shown bursts of life away from home—29.0 points per game on the road is no small feat—but the tradeoff has been defensive leakage, with 31.3 allowed in those same trips. Overall, the Jets are running at 21.7 points per game scored and 26.8 allowed across nine contests, a negative margin that has put them under the gun in second halves. They did notch a 27-20 home win over Cleveland in their latest outing, a potential springboard for confidence. The challenge here: replicate that efficiency in a venue where New England tends to make visiting offenses play left-handed. Ball security and early-down success are the swing factors; if the Jets are living in third-and-long, Foxborough has a way of closing the door.
Team Statistics
- – New England Patriots (season averages): 26.5 points scored, 19.2 allowed per game, +7.3 average margin. At home: 25.0 scored, 18.0 allowed per game; 3-2 home record.
- – New York Jets (season averages): 21.7 points scored, 26.8 allowed per game, -5.1 average margin. On the road: 29.0 scored, 31.3 allowed per game; 1-2 road record.
- – Division context: This is an AFC East rivalry on a short week. The Patriots are pressing toward the top of the division picture; the Jets are trying to claw back into the wild-card conversation with a statement result.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- – Momentum: New England rides a five-game winning run; the Jets have gone 2-3 across their last five.
- – Head-to-head vibe: Tight margins and field-position battles have been the hallmark in recent meetings, including New England’s 25-22 win in the last matchup.
- – External factors: Thursday nights tend to favor the better defense and the staff that handles in-game adjustments. November in Foxborough can bring wind; if it shows up, it helps the Under case and favors the team that runs it, protects it, and wins special teams.
- – Situational angle: New England has been the more efficient second-half team of late; if the Jets want to flip the script, a fast start and plus turnover margin are must-haves.
Last direct match: New England Patriots vs New York Jets
The most recent meeting finished 25-22 for New England, a one-score grinder that mirrored the rivalry’s recent tenor—possession football, field goals mattering, and late-game execution separating the sides. That kind of script plays right into this week’s market, where the Patriots are favored and the total sits in the mid-40s, daring bettors to pick whether this stays methodical or breaks open.
Performance last 5 matches
- – New England Patriots: 5 wins, 0 losses (all competitions).
- – New York Jets: 2 wins, 3 losses (all competitions).
Form doesn’t set the final score, but it highlights which team has been handling business and which one is still searching for consistency, especially in crunch time.
Last match results: New England Patriots and New York Jets
- – New England Patriots: 28-23 away win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A controlled performance that balanced offense and timely stops.
- – New York Jets: 27-20 home win over the Cleveland Browns. A needed step forward that showed they can land punches against a physical opponent.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
This handicap comes down to trust and tendencies. New England’s steady defense and clean late-game habits, especially at home, make the Patriots the side on the moneyline, and a credible play to cover -10.5 at -110 if they turn field position into points the way they have during this winning run. Pair that with the Under 45.5 at -115 on a short week in Foxborough—where tempo and defense often take center stage—and you’ve got a three-leg card that fits the rivalry, the venue, and the current form.
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