Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning 11/24/2025
We’ve got a good one set for AMALIE Arena on Monday night: the Flyers head to Tampa to face the Lightning in a classic Eastern Conference clash. Both teams have been showing some pop lately—Tampa’s been riding a heater and the Flyers have found a resilient groove—so this is a matchup that deserves a deeper look through a betting lens. The market has Tampa priced as the favorite at home, which lines up with their recent surge and their comfort in this building. Philadelphia comes in off a confidence-boosting performance, and its road profile has settled into a steady, no-panic rhythm.
From a handicapping standpoint, you’re balancing Tampa’s top-line finishing and elite goaltending pedigree with Philly’s structure, improved five-on-five play, and an away record that suggests they won’t blink in a tough environment. We’ll talk probabilities, implied odds, and the matchup texture—pace, forecheck pressure, and special teams—to set up three actionable angles: total, moneyline, and the puck line.
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Our betting predictions: Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Main Tip: Game Totals – Over 5.5 total Goals
Our primary tip leans on the Totals: Over 5.5 total goals at -115 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Why I like it: Tampa’s offense under Jon Cooper has picked up lately, with multiple scoring threats driving tempo, and Philadelphia’s five-on-five game has generated quality looks off the cycle and middle-lane drives. The Lightning are averaging around 3.06 goals per game, the Flyers about 2.94 per game, which puts the combined baseline near the number even before you add power-play impact. Expect a pace that ebbs and flows, but with enough high-danger sequences to push this over.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Tampa Bay Lightning
Our second betting tip on the Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning at best odds with BetMGM. Why I like it: Home ice, recent form, and a goaltending advantage tilt this toward Tampa. Andrei Vasilevskiy’s rhythm has sharpened, while the Lightning’s top-six has been converting at an elite clip. Philadelphia’s live-dog case isn’t empty—resilient, comfortable in grindy minutes—but Tampa’s high-end shotmakers plus last-change management under Cooper are real edges.
Tip 3: Spread – Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5
Our final betting tip leans on the spread: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 at +145 with BetMGM. Why I like it: If you’re on the Lightning side already, the puck line offers an aggressive add-on. Tampa’s late-game empty-net equity and the ability to stack scoring shifts can turn a one-goal lead into a cover. Implied probability on +145 is roughly 41%; I price a multi-goal win closer to 42–44% in this spot, especially if the Flyers chase the game late. It’s higher variance, but the payout matches the profile.
Team Statistics: Form trends and what travels
Tampa Bay Lightning (Home, Eastern Conference – Atlantic Division)
- Snapshot and form: Tampa has picked up momentum with a 4–1 run over the last five, including a comfortable road margin in their most recent outing. At home, they’ve split their eight dates, but the process has looked sharper of late—more controlled exits, cleaner entries, and better layered support through the neutral zone.
- Production profile: The Lightning are averaging about 3.06 goals per game and allowing around 3.00 per game. That slim positive differential speaks to a team leaning on skill and timely saves. They can flip a game with one explosive shift.
- Special teams texture: Under Jon Cooper, the power play typically functions with pace and quick puck movement through the bumper and weakside seams. The penalty kill has been aggressive up ice, looking to disrupt entries rather than sitting back. Even with blue-line injuries, their structure stays disciplined.
- Goaltending/shot quality: Vasilevskiy’s recent groove has nudged Tampa’s save environment up. Shot share has improved alongside cleaner defensive-zone coverage, which limits second looks. – Standings context: In the Atlantic, they’re fighting in a crowded mid-pack where a good week vaults you and a stumble drops you. The trend line is pointing up.
Philadelphia Flyers (Away, Eastern Conference – Metropolitan Division)
- Snapshot and form: The Flyers are 3–2 across the last five, including a strong home result against a top offensive team. On the road, they’ve been even, which reflects their identity—structured, patient, and willing to play heavy along the walls to slow opponents.
- Production profile: Philadelphia averages roughly 2.94 goals per game and concedes about 2.71 per game. That favorable goal-prevention number comes from cohesive five-man defense and committed backpressure from the forwards.
- Special teams texture: The power play has shown better puck touch lately, but the Flyers’ calling card is that five-on-five grind where they win races to loose pucks and protect the house. The penalty kill has leaned on active sticks and quicker clears, keeping dangerous sequences to the outside.
- Goaltending/shot quality: Recent performances in net have settled nicely, with calmer rebounds and stronger net-front box-outs. The Flyers manufacture offense from retrievals and tips more than stretch plays.
- Standings context: In the Metro, they’re solidly in the mix; their defensive reliability keeps them in games and protects against extended slumps.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Tampa Bay’s scoring push has been powered by Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel heating up, giving the Lightning a multi-line punch that stretches matchups.
- Andrei Vasilevskiy’s recent surge re-centers Tampa’s identity: big saves early, dagger stops late.
- On the health front, Victor Hedman’s absence remains a factor on the back end, with Erik Cernak’s status worth monitoring; Jon Cooper’s staff has leaned on next-man-up minutes to keep the breakout clean.
- For Philly, Tyson Foerster’s pop and Travis Konecny’s playmaking keep their top six dangerous even when the finishing isn’t instant.
- The Flyers’ goaltending form has stabilized, which is crucial against Tampa’s slot attacks. Home ice and last change favor the Lightning, but Philadelphia’s discipline can blunt rush chances if they dictate pace along the boards.
Last direct match
The most recent meeting in Tampa ended with the Lightning pitching a home shutout. In the last five head-to-heads, Philadelphia holds a narrow edge overall.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Tampa Bay: 4 wins, 1 loss over the last five, including a road victory by a multi-goal margin in Washington.
- Philadelphia: 3 wins, 2 losses over the last five, coming off a home performance where they pulled away by three.
If you’re looking for a little direction before puck drop, take a quick look at our expert NHL picks — sometimes one smart angle makes all the difference.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Over 5.5 at -110: This is my favorite angle. Both teams’ recent finishing form and the way Tampa’s top six can force higher-event sequences suggest we get enough quality to clear the number. My projection edges into the mid-50s on probability, slightly above the implied. Lightning moneyline: Tampa’s form, Vasilevskiy’s stabilization, and last change under Jon Cooper push this into fair price territory. I’m around 60–64% for the Bolts—close to the implied—so it’s a play if you’re comfortable backing the home favorite in a tight, playoff-feel spot. Lightning -1.5 at +145: Higher variance, but worth a sprinkle if you’re already on Tampa. The Bolts’ ability to stretch leads late (and the empty-net window) makes the plus price attractive.
How we got here: The models lean on per-game production (TBL ~3.06 GF/G vs. PHI ~2.94 GF/G), recent momentum (TBL 4–1, PHI 3–2), and situational edges (home ice, last change). Add in goaltending trends and Tampa’s finishing upside, and the Bolts are the rightful favorite, with the total most likely to clip over in the third period when benches shorten and top lines stack shifts.
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