Ohio State @ Michigan NCAA Football 11/29/2025
The Game. Noon window. Snow in Ann Arbor. And the stakes feel like the College Football Playoff selection committee is sitting on the 50-yard line, taking notes. No. 2 Ohio State rolls in at 11-0, Michigan at 9-2, both riding five-game heaters. Kickoff is Saturday, November 29, 2025, 12:00 ET at Michigan Stadium. Market-wise, the gap is clear: Ohio State is priced favorably on the moneyline, with Michigan as the underdog at one major US sportsbook. That translates to roughly an 80% implied win chance for the Buckeyes and about 24% for the Wolverines, once you account for the usual hold.
But context matters. Michigan’s 5-0 at home, loads of juice in the trenches, and this rivalry has been unusually one-sided lately in the Maize and Blue’s favor. Still, the Buckeyes’ week-in, week-out baseline has been elite: they’re averaging 37.9 points per game while allowing just 7.6, and they’ve shown a knack for suffocating game scripts. Michigan averages 29.3 points per game, allows 17.9, and tends to slow opponents down with discipline up front and explosive, balanced run-game pieces.
From a betting angle, you’re balancing market reality with rivalry chaos, injuries on both sides, and that classic late-November Big Ten weather. My read: this sets up as a field-position fight more than a full-on track meet, and that favors a tighter, more methodical path. Let’s get to the card.
Considering how injuries, tempo, and coaching styles impact these games, reviewing the NCAA football betting odds can give you a clearer sense of where the smart side actually is.
Our betting predictions: Ohio State @ Michigan
Best Bet: Spread – Ohio State -9.5
Our betting tip 1: Spread: Ohio State -9.5 (best price: -115 at Fanatics Sportsbook). Estimated probability: 53%. Why: If this breaks late, it’s likely because Ohio State’s depth and defensive speed tilt the second half. Michigan has been outstanding at home, but the Buckeyes’ per-game margin (37.9 scored, 7.6 allowed) sets a very high floor, and their pass efficiency with QB Julian Sayin tends to flip field position in a hurry even if weather caps explosives. The number is sharp in a rivalry, yet my projection has Ohio State covering just a tick more than the break-even. Betting tip: Lay the points at -115 with Fanatics.
With lines shifting throughout the day, having the Fanatics Sportsbook app handy is genuinely useful for keeping up with the numbers in real time.
Tip 2: Totals – Under 44.5 Points
Our second betting tip leans on the Under 44.5 points (best price: -110 at Fanatics Sportsbook). Estimated probability: 55% (implied break-even about 52.4%). Why: The recipe screams slower, lower. Ohio State’s defense has been the most bankable unit in this game, giving up just 7.6 points per game on average. Michigan can play keep-away, and with snow in the forecast and wind in play, both passing attacks could be a touch muted. Even if big-play talent exists on both sidelines, the rivalry tends to compress possessions. My projection clusters this in the 38–43 total range more often than not. Betting tip: Take the Under at -110 with Fanatics.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Ohio State to Win
Moneyline: Ohio State to win (best price: at DraftKings), Market-implied probability: OSU ~80%, Michigan ~24%. Why: For a straight-up outcome, the Buckeyes are the rightful favorite. Michigan’s path is clear—win the line of scrimmage, limit explosive passes, lean on their backs—but Ohio State’s baseline defensive performance and efficient passing game make them the sturdier choice to survive the full 60. If you’re price-sensitive, the spread offers a better angle than swallowing the heavy juice, but for parlays or conservative bettors, OSU moneyline is the chalky side.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Michigan (home)
- Record: 9-2 (81.8% win rate; 18.2% losses). Perfect 5-0 at home.
- Scoring profile: 29.3 points per game on offense; 17.9 allowed per game. That’s the calling card—methodical offense and a defense that tightens in the red zone.
- Last result: a convincing 45-20 road win at Maryland, an outing that underscored the run game’s ability to control tempo.
- Skill talent, per-game pace: QB Bryce Underwood averages about 197.8 passing yards per game and 227.3 total yards per game, with 1.27 total touchdowns per game. He adds 35.7 rushing yards per game at a lively 7.56 yards per carry. WR Andrew Marsh averages 3.8 receptions, 58.3 yards, and 0.27 touchdowns per game. On the ground, Jordan Marshall averages 79.2 rushing yards and 0.91 touchdowns per game; Justice Haynes sits at 77.9 rushing yards and 0.91 touchdowns per game.
- Table standing: 19th. Michigan’s formula at home has been consistent—early stops, scripted efficiency, and second-half body blows by the backs.
Ohio State (away)
- Record: 11-0 (100% win rate).
- Scoring profile: 37.9 points per game; 7.6 allowed per game. That defensive average is the headline—relentless pressure, disciplined pursuit, and a tendency to win early downs.
- Last result: a 42-9 home win over Rutgers, which fit the season-long template of fast starts and defensive chokeholds.
- Skill talent, per-game pace: QB Julian Sayin is averaging 257.5 passing yards, 2.45 touchdowns, and 0.36 interceptions per game on a sharp 79.4% completion rate. WR Jeremiah Smith clocks about 6.27 receptions, 82.0 yards, and 0.91 touchdowns per game. WR Carnell Tate is around 3.55 receptions, 64.6 yards, and 0.64 touchdowns per game. RB Bo Jackson averages 75.9 rushing yards and 0.45 touchdowns per game with a sturdy 6.5 yards per carry.
- Table standing: 2nd. The Buckeyes’ profile looks like a title contender: explosive pass efficiency plus a defense that lets nothing breathe.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Injuries are a subplot: Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate have been day-to-day but trending toward availability; Smith’s typical line sits near 82 receiving yards per game. Michigan’s safety Rod Moore is out, while RB Jordan Marshall—averaging about 79 rushing yards per game—expects to play. LB Ernest Hausmann is day-to-day. Weather: Temps near 30°F with snow likely and wind 10–15 mph could soften passing and elevate the run game and special teams. Coaching note: Michigan head coach: -. Ohio State’s Ryan Day brings a top-end defense into a situation tailor-made for field position and patience.
Last direct match: Michigan vs Ohio State
The most recent meeting ended 13-10, a tight road win for Michigan, reinforcing how this rivalry can shrink margins and totals.
Performance last 5 Matches
Both teams are 5-0 across the last five. Michigan’s form has gathered steam with cleaner execution on the ground; Ohio State has been ruthlessly consistent, especially on defense.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card leans into what’s most dependable in a rivalry setting with weather in play. First, under 44.5: the Buckeye defense, plus a snow-and-wind environment, pushes this toward a possession-based grinder. Second, Ohio State -9.5 at -115: if there’s late separation, it’s most likely the Buckeyes leveraging defensive stops into short fields. Third, moneyline: Ohio State is the straightforward side; Michigan’s is a home swing but priced for an upset, not a baseline expectation. Net-net, the numbers, context, and matchup dynamics nudge us to a conservative total, a modest lean to a Buckeye cover, and a chalk moneyline.
