Pittsburgh Penguins @ Edmonton Oilers 01/22/2026
Rogers Place will be buzzing on NHL Round 16 as the Pittsburgh Penguins roll into Edmonton to take on the Oilers on Thursday, 01/22/2026, 9:00 PM local. For bettors eyeing this one, you’ve got two teams separated by a single standings point and both hovering around .500. Edmonton sits at 58 points and a 12th-place table spot; Pittsburgh trails with 57 points and sits 13th. Both have identical 12-11 home/road marks in those splits, so you’re getting a pretty clean matchup in terms of situational angles. The Oilers’ home offense typically hums a bit higher than their overall rate, and the Penguins’ road defense has traveled well. That’s the push-pull tension that should shape this handicap.
Between the pipes and up front, we know the top-end stars on both sides can turn a game with one rush or one seam pass on the power play. But with both teams playing slightly tighter of late and the Penguins finding their structure on the road, there’s a case to be made that this total sits a touch high. Let’s break it down.
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Betting prediction for the match Pittsburgh Penguins @ Edmonton Oilers
We’ve got a razor-thin table gap, but the Oilers still profile as the rightful home favorite, with the market listing Edmonton around -200 on the moneyline and Pittsburgh around +165. My model makes Edmonton the better side more nights than not, but the way these clubs are trending suggests value can exist beyond the straight moneyline.
- Win probabilities (model-based): Oilers 61%, Penguins 39%
- Total under 6.5: 54% (fair odds about -117)
- Oilers -1.5: 41% (fair odds about +144)
I like the main line on Edmonton, and I’ll explain below why the Under and the puck line both have legs depending on your risk appetite.
Our betting predictions: Pittsburgh Penguins @ Edmonton Oilers
Main Tip: Totals – Under 6.5 Goals
1) Under 6.5 goals at best odds -115 at FanDuel. Handicap: At 5-on-5, both teams trend toward control-first hockey when protecting a lead, and both skates come in with recent form that leans more responsible than run-and-gun. The Penguins allow about 3.00 goals per game overall and dip under 2.75 per road game allowed, while Edmonton’s home concessions sit a little above 3.25 per game but often tighten when protecting a second-period lead. My model makes the Under 6.5 about 54%, slightly better than the market number of -115. That small edge is playable.
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Tip 2: Edmonton Oilers moneyline
2) Edmonton Oilers moneyline at bet365. Handicap: Edmonton is generating around 3.35 goals per game overall, and at Rogers Place, that bumps to roughly 3.61 per game. That’s a meaningful home lift. Pittsburgh’s offense sits around 3.18 per game overall and approximately 3.09 per game on the road. My projection lands Edmonton at about 61% win probability; the market at -200 implies closer to 66.7%. You’re paying a premium for the Oilers’ star power and home ice, but as a parlay anchor or straight confidence play, it’s still the most likely outcome.
Tip 3: Oilers -1.5 (puck line)
3) Oilers -1.5 (puck line) at best odds +130 at bet365. Handicap: If you’re backing Edmonton, laddering to the puck line is logical. With roughly a 41% cover probability (fair around +144), the listed +130 isn’t a massive bargain, but it’s a reasonable plus-money look given Edmonton’s ability to pull away late if they grab the first goal. Empty-net equity helps in this matchup, particularly at home.
Team Statistics and Form Guide
Edmonton Oilers (Western Conference)
- Table context: 58 points, listed 5th on the table in this match file. Pacific Division placement not specified in the file, but they’re jockeying in that mid-pack range.
- Overall scoring: About 3.35 goals per game scored and 3.14 allowed.
- Home profile: 12-11 at home; scoring climbs to roughly 3.61 per home game with about 3.30 allowed per home game. That home boost matters for both moneyline and puck line projections.
- Form trend: 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five, including a narrow home setback to New Jersey in the most recent outing. Edmonton tends to stabilize quickly after a one-goal stumble at home.
- Special teams and percentages: Qualitatively, Edmonton’s top unit is always a threat with its high-skill distribution and the right-shot trigger from the point; historically, the penalty kill has run hot and cold.
Pittsburgh Penguins (Eastern Conference)
- Table context: 59 points, listed 6th on the table here.
- Overall scoring: Roughly 3.18 goals per game scored, 3.00 allowed. That balanced ratio underscores why they’re in almost every game late.
- Road profile: 12-11 away; about 3.09 goals per game on the road and only about 2.70 allowed per game away from home. That travel defense is a key reason the Under is viable.
- Form trend: Also 2 wins and 3 losses across the last five, but the latest was a convincing road performance in Seattle. When Pittsburgh gets first touch in the neutral zone, and their third line is humming, they become a tough team to gap-control.
- Special teams and percentages: Pittsburgh’s faceoff game typically benefits from veteran centers, and their power play rhythm tends to improve when the bumper gets touches early in each advantage.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
From recent historical context between these clubs: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have repeatedly tilted these matchups with multi-point nights; when both get rolling, Edmonton’s win rate skyrockets. Zach Hyman’s net-front presence is a constant headache on the man advantage, and Evan Bouchard’s blue-line puck movement is a big driver. On Pittsburgh’s side, Sidney Crosby remains the compass—he often controls pace on the road with surgical entries and strong details on the backcheck, with Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell offering timely finishing. In past meetings, special teams have swung momentum; keep an eye on early penalties, especially if Pittsburgh’s unit gets touches through the middle seam. Goaltending will be pivotal given Pittsburgh’s sturdy road defensive numbers and Edmonton’s home scoring bump. Travel and schedule compression aren’t extreme here; both sides should be relatively fresh.
Last direct match: Edmonton Oilers vs Pittsburgh Penguins
The most recent head-to-head leaned Edmonton’s way on the road, a high-event night decided by a two-goal margin. Overall, Edmonton has taken four of the last five meetings.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Edmonton Oilers: 2 wins, 3 losses; last outing was a tight home setback to New Jersey.
- Pittsburgh Penguins: 2 wins, 3 losses; last outing was a solid road showing in Seattle.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s how the pieces fit. Edmonton at home is usually good for north of three-and-a-half per game, and while Pittsburgh brings a disciplined road defense that often suppresses opponents under three, the Oilers’ star power and last-change advantage push them over the line more often than not. That’s why the moneyline favorite at -200 remains the most likely outcome, even if it’s priced close to full freight.
The sharper angle is the Under 6.5 at -115. My projection shows slight value to the Under with these current scoring and concession rates, combined with the Penguins’ road structure and Edmonton’s capacity to sit on leads. It’s not a massive edge, but it’s actionable.
If you want a plus-money swing, Oilers -1.5 at +130 is the escalator. If Edmonton breaks through first, their home tendency to extend—and the empty-net factor—gives you decent cover equity. In sum: Under 6.5 for value, Edmonton moneyline for confidence, and Oilers -1.5 for plus-money upside.
