UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira Odds, Picks & Where to Watch
Bantamweight – UFC Fight Night (@ UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV) – Saturday, February 7, 2026
Saturday night’s main event in Las Vegas features a top-tier bantamweight clash as Mario Bautista (16–3, UFC 10–3) faces Vinicius Oliveira (23–3, UFC 4–0). Bautista enters as the favorite, leveraging his experience, eight-fight winning streak prior to a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov, and a well-rounded skill set that mixes wrestling, volume striking, and submissions. Oliveira, the underdog, is undefeated in the UFC, showcasing explosive finishing ability with 16 KOs on his record and steady cardio that allows him to go the distance while maintaining pressure.
This fight is a classic tactical vs. explosive matchup: Early takedowns, fight control, and clinch success will likely dictate the scorecards, setting up clear betting angles in Moneyline and round totals. Don’t bet cold — Learn how to make UFC predictions like a pro before locking in tonight’s picks.
Bautista vs Oliveira Odds Outlook & Expert Betting Picks
Main Pick: Moneyline – Mario Bautista
Best Pick: Moneyline – Mario Bautista (-175 at bet365). bet365 sportsbook has leaned toward Bautista returning to form. His striking and wrestling discipline give him reliable scoring over three rounds. Bautista’s experience in tight decisions and championship‑round strategy provides a consistent scoring edge — especially in fights that play out to judges. The -175 line reflects a roughly 60–63% implied win probability and rewards bettors confident that Bautista can neutralize Oliveira’s power and pace.
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Pick 2: Method – Fight Goes to Decision
2) Method – Fight Goes to Decision (+125 at bet365). Given Bautista’s ability to grind and Oliveira’s recent decision wins, this prop has appeal. Oliveira has yet to be stopped in the UFC, and Bautista’s tendency to control positions and avoid early susceptibilities makes a 15‑minute fight likely. This angle gains value if the total number of rounds lines is close to three, as judges become a betting lever.
Pick 3: Totals / Rounds – Over 2.5 Rounds
3) Totals / Rounds – Over 2.5 Rounds (-230 at bet365). Early bursts are likely, but both fighters have shown the ability to sustain action through all rounds, making the Over 2.5 rounds a compelling option. It balances Oliveira’s early aggression with Bautista’s durability and control.
Road to This Fight
Mario Bautista
Bautista has consistently performed against ranked competition. Wins over Patchy Mix and José Aldo highlight his ability to control bouts with wrestling and striking volume, while his only losses came against elite-level fighters. The bout against Umar Nurmagomedov snapped an eight-fight win streak but offered insight into Bautista’s endurance and technical adjustments under pressure.
Vinicius Oliveira
Oliveira has rapidly ascended the bantamweight division, entering the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series. He’s undefeated in his four UFC appearances and has earned multiple performance bonuses. His fights show an ability to finish with power while maintaining positional control over all three rounds, making him a dangerous underdog who can compete at the top of the division.
Fighters Full Profile: Bautista vs Oliveira
| Bautista | Attribute | Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| 5’9″ | Height | 5’9″ |
| 135 lbs | Weight | 136 lbs |
| 32 | Age | 30 |
| 69″ | Reach | 70.5″ |
| Switch | Stance | Switch |
| 5.58 | SIG STR LPM | 5.28 |
| 54.09% | SIG STR ACC | 46.20% |
| 1.48 | TD AVG | 1.67 |
| 32.50% | TD ACC | 50.00% |
| 0.80 | SUB AVG | 0.24 |
Our Betting Card for Bautista vs Oliveira
| Bet Type | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mario Bautista | -175 |
| Method | By Decision | +125 |
| Rounds / Prop | Over 2.5 Rounds | -230 |
Where to Watch Bautista vs Oliveira (U.S.)
- Broadcast/Streaming: Paramount+ (Main Card)
- Prelims: Paramount+
- Expect the main event around 9:00 p.m. ET following prelims
Final Thoughts: Bautista vs Oliveira
This bantamweight matchup carries implications beyond the fight night — a Bautista win likely keeps him in the title mix, while a Oliveira victory pushes him toward top‑10 relevance. For bettors, the most reliable angles are moneyline and decision/prop plays that lean on pacing and round totals. If Oliveira lands early and keeps pace, his chances improve, but Bautista’s cage control and tactical output make him the safer expectation across the distance.
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